Block 1 "Standings"

Burlington, VT

Block 1 is in the books and some teams have started to separate themselves from the pack. Sure, you might think it's easy to point at the standings and determine who the good teams are and who's in trouble. But what's the true measure of how good a team is? Record, expected record? Perhaps peripherals like HRs vs HRs allowed, Ks vs Ks thrown tell a better picture?

A few NASBL teams establish themselves as outliers in this statistical manner. Who are they? Thought you'd never ask:

• LCC - Commish's club is playing .500 ball and looking at another year of being a 3rd wheel to the HHA-SPR love fest. But why is that? LCC is under performing by 3 wins on the expected wins (Wx) front and they have the league's best combined ranking when looking at HRs and Ks for and against. Those two facts are contradictory to each other. If you're lacking in expected wins, then maybe you're not doing a good job in other areas. But LCC is doing a good job in those areas. So what accounts for their pedestrian 23-23 Block 1? No idea.
• DFW - Red Robbin's club is off to a roaring start sitting atop the Less Filling League with a 30-16 record. Many wrote off the Spurs, mainly due to the decline of their average ball cap size with the retirement of A, Y., but DFW has been a pleasant early surprise. In doing so it became clear they are the polar opposite of LCC. LCC under performs Wx by 3, DFW out performs Wx by 5. LCC is at the top of HR and K team stats, DFW near the bottom. In fact, the Spurs have yielded 22 more taters than they've hit and been struck out 58 more times then their opposition. Makes no sense. As an animated deceased attorney famously said, if something makes no sense, you must use the Chewbacca Defense. It was said that animated Cochran's defense was so advanced, no one understood it. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Dallas Fort Worth Spurs!
• NJT - As good as the Heap have been this year, what's scary is their Wx shows they should have 4 more wins than they do, putting their expected record at 31-15. Jersey also excels in the HR and K departments, so their success (and expected success) is of no surprise. What it does reveal is that this team is for real and will be in the hunt all season long. Mosco's squad is the only one in the South division with a record over .500. They could have the division wrapped up by the end of Block 2 unless Outlaw catches fire. Speaking of Outlaw . . .
• OJW - Made you look, no outlier here. Tracking right on pace with Wx, and right in the middle of the pack of secondary stats. So that leaves LVI (who appears to know when to throw in the towel, others, not so much) and last place Georgia left to chase down the Mosco Machine.
• VFS & HHA - Two teams with nearly identical records and both out performed Wx by 4 and perform well in the HR and K category. So their success appears validated, but evidence shows their paces should cool off.
• A handful of teams fit neatly into the "They are who we thought they are" category, so feel free to crown their ass. Miami has a good record, gives up precious few dingers and doesn't strike out much, so their place in the standings is no surprise. LVI recently issued this press release "It has come to our attention that this year's edition of the IronPigs is pathetic at best", and a statictical review of the #s supports GM Burns' claim.

These are but a few tidbits to chew on while putting together your Block 2 CMIs (due 5/24 at the stroke of midnight). But don't get too caught up in Wx, HRa, Ks and other voodoo techniques used to divert you from the truth. As noted net minder Marty Turco says, "Statistics are like bikinis, they only show so much".