Season Preview - Outlaw Josey Wales

Burlington, VT

Everything is happier in Outlaw land. Well, that might not have always been true, but it surely applies to the feelings heading into the 2010 NASBL season with OJW coming off a NASBL Championship season. The TG South looks like a tighter 4-team race this year as the division’s dominant forces OJW and NJT may have taken a step back while the bottom half of the division teams have their constituents buzzing. Burlington Free Press’ TG South blogger Tuba Do Jinx Uris takes us below the Mason-Dixon line to give us the scoop on the defending NASBL champs.

Five-Year Win Trend

2009 101

2008 90

2007 68

2006 87

2005 74

OUTLAW JOSEY WALES

‘09 Record: 101-61, 1st in TG South
Pythagorean Record: 101-61 (+0)
Current NASBLOTA Projection: 96-66 (1st in TG South)

2009 Review

Outlaw finished the 2009 season in first place, 4 games ahead of the Trash Heap. They were able to win 11 more games than they did in 2008 and improve from on their position of 6 games out of first place. In 2009, OJW scored 830 runs while allowing a league 2^nd best 648. There were many bright spots for OJW in 2009, with one being Ryan Dempster’s 21-7, 3.11 campaign.

2010 Outlook

While the rich got richer in the form of two 1^st round draft picks (Elvis Andrus & Nelson Cruz), the toughest challenge will be holding the opposition under 700 runs again. The pitching staff was hit hard by injuries, leading Mark Hildebrant to rely on an improved defense (four 1-range players in the IF!) to limit crooked numbers on the score board. Four big question remain for this team: (1) Is Manny Ramirez in a nonstop downward spiral or can he put together a healthy end to end season? (2) Will the Outlaw rotation, full of part-timers, be good enough to pitch well all season? (3) Is Elvis Andrus, taken #3 overall, the NEXT BIG THING? and (4) When will GM Hildebrant relax his “Joba Rules” and unleash Mr. Chamberlin’s considerable talents on the rest of the league?

2010 Team

Departed:

Rod Barajas

Chris Coste

Gabe Kapler

Melvin Mora

Nick Punto

Alfonso Soriano

Ryan Theriot

Tim Byrdak

J Devine

Javier Lopez

Jason Frasor

H Kuo

G Smith

New Arrivals:

Jared Salty

David Ortiz

L Valbuena

Elvis Andrus

Adrian Beltre

Nelson Cruz

Grant Balfour

J Carlson

M Lowe

DJ Carrasco

Kevin Jepsen

Matt Capps

Catcher

The catching position was not a big source of strength for Outlaw a year ago, and not much has changed heading into this season. With former prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s shoulder still an area of concern and his offensive numbers never really coming together, Mike Napoli should see a good chunk of playing time in 2010 and punish LHP in the process.

Infield

The Texas infield is one of the teams biggest strengths and it’s what sets them ahead of most other clubs. With Adrian Gonzalez at first, Dustin Pedroia at second, Elvis Andrus at short and Adrian Beltre at 3^rd, there aren’t many teams that can match up with an infield like that form both an offensive and defensive standpoint.

Gonzalez has firmly established himself as a star and is the club’s first baseman of the present & future while Pedroria comes in as a sleeper for the TG batting title. Andrus is a strong ROY candidate and should meet expectations in 2010 as he works to improve the skills he displayed with his glove. Mr. Consistency, Beltre, will continue to shine with his glove and provide more than adequate offense in support of the Outlaw line up.

Outfield

Jason Bay is a big time home run threat, Rajai Davis can run after the ball and around the bases with the best of ‘em and Nelson Cruz will start in right and the trio will combine for a very good offensive and average defensive outfield for Outlaw. Should anyone need day off, Manny Ramirez is more than a capable backup as he fights his way back into the mix.

Designated Hitter

Manny and his former minor league teammate David Ortiz will hit RHP well from the DH spot and should post about a 120 OPS+ against lefties.

Bench

Franchise mascot Omar Vizquel is back again, this time to tutor young Elvis in the finer arts of glovemanship and provide about 150 ABs worth of experience. Ryan Ludwick and Manny make up very good #4 and #5 OFers.

Starting Rotation

Outlaw’s rotation is experienced but lacks a true top of the rotation innings-eater. Much of the rotation’s success will depend on the health of Rich Harden and Jake Peavy. Getting a combined 225 IP from these two talented hurlers will go a long way for Outlaw success, but you should expect them to miss at least a handful of starts in 2010. Ryan Dempster, the #1 on paper, won 21 games in 2009, but heading into this year appears to lack true “ace” stuff. Scott Baker will be a competent 25+ start option for Mark and Scott Kazmir and Joba Chamberlin’s combined production are above average for their back of the rotation status. The team hopes it can nurse Tim Hudson back to health so he may return to his past dominance.

Bullpen

The bullpen is one of the team’s biggest strengths. Broxton and Soria are great closer options and the rest of the pen is littered with very good set up men and other options for closers if the need arises in the form of Downs, Balfour and Matt Capps amongst others.

AROUND THE HORN WITH OUTLAW JOSEY WALES…

Breakthrough Performance…

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Sharing more of the time behind the plate with Mike Napoli should allow Saltalamacchia’s offensive game to develop more and as his catching demands lessen, he should find his swing and become more of the offensive threat he was projected to be. With his shoulder feeling better after off season surgery, and being just 25 years old, Saltalamacchia still has a bright future ahead of him. As long as he can take some time to work on his plate discipline and reduce the number of Ks, the rest should improve on its own.

Ready to Rebound…

Manny Ramirez

Coming off an “injury” plagued 2009, MannyBManny can only improve in 2010. You could say that after 2008, he suffered from hitters Verducci effect where his body just wasn’t ready to play a full season without pharmaceutical aid. He’s gone through a lot and has a questionable work ethic. As long as he can listen to what his body is telling him in terms of injuries he should be able to stay on the field and produce.

Ready to Disappoint…

Rich Harden

Harden needs to fill a vital role in the rotation and for someone who just hasn’t pitched a lot of innings due to injury, there’s not much he’ll be able to do when the inevitable DL stint occurs. If (When?) Harden gets hurt, it will leave a huge hole talent-wise in the top of rotation, which will cause Outlaw to pull players out of different roles to fill a need. This may not end well for Outlaw or Harden if he isn’t able to pitch a full season.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Outlaw regresses a bit and New Jersey wins the TG South. As mentioned many times herein, the key will be the ability of the pitching to repeat 2009’s success. If not, the fallback is a sterling defensive infield and hopefully increased production from Manny and a big season with the bat from rookie Nelson Cruz.

Be Shocked If…

Elvis Andrus dose not compete for TG ROY. He’s just too talented and will get a lot of run scoring opportunities hitting ahead of Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz.

Rock Steady…

Adrian Gonzalez

One thing that stands out more than anything in this lineup is Adrian Gonzalez’s consistency. He’s a hitter with excellent bat control, and someone who can drive the ball on a consistent basis. None of that even mentions his gold glove caliber defense.

Achilles Heel…

Age & Injuries

Father time is catching up with more than a few of OJW’s All-Star caliber players. Between Manny & Big Papi, the offense ain’t what it used to be. And the bullpen car best be driven by a paramedic.

In the Next Three Years…

Look for Outlaw to be consistent winners in the TG South as their young position players gain experience and become leaders within the club house and the rotation returns to health. Hildebrandt has a good group of young players who are still learning and with each year of experience these young players gain, the better the team will be as a whole.

Goosebumps Moment…

The raising of the banner in Outlaw Stadium. This is what season ticket holders have been long waiting for, and OJW rewarded their loyalty by bringing home the hardware.