KNIGHTS DRAFT IN REVIEW

( New York Daily Mirror – March 9, 2010)

The Mirror presents its review and analysis of the array of hits, misses and head-scratchers that was the Knights’ 2010 draft.

NEW YORK – Mitch Pak established once again that when it comes to the draft, he is nothing if not unpredictable.

Where conventional wisdom had the Knights addressing their most glaring need in the opening round of the draft – catching – Pak opted instead to strengthen the starting rotation by drafting young fireballing righthander Josh Johnson. While Johnson is unquestionably a solid choice, the starting rotation was one aspect of the club that was not in need of an obvious upgrade, anchored as it was last season by LF Rookie of the Year runner-up Jon Lester (12-10, 3.86 in 2009) and bolstered by veteran lefty Joe Saunders (4.33 ERA, 120 K’s). An anonymous source in the Knights front office (the same source that was leaking inside information from the Knights draft “war room” via Twitter before being mysteriously silenced) suggested that Pak is “very concerned” about Matt Cain’s ability to regain the form he displayed in his 2007 rookie season, when he was 15-10. There is also legitimate worry that Cain, who was the Knights’ #1 pick in 2007, simply does not have the makeup to even be a reliable #2 starter behind Lester, as he yields too many hits. Cain is 34-45 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.61 WHP in his three seasons in New York and his star (not to mention his trade value) has fallen sharply since ’07.

Pak also was allegedly concerned about fan reaction in the event that Adam Wainwright, whom the Knights dealt last year to Georgia in exchange for Vladimir Guerrero, develops as expected into a front-end starter for the rejuvenated Roadkill. Despite the passage of five years, Knights fans are still smarting over the infamous 2005 deal that sent closer Joe Nathan to Georgia for Barry “The Biggest Loser” Zito. Nathan went on to become a perennial All-Star while Zito became a punchline for cheesy late-night comedians.

Despite posting a 29-win improvement over the Disaster of ’08, the Knights were still considered to be an offensively-challenged team in ’09. The team RBI leader, Xavier Nady, had just 75 RBI despite 31 homers and 34 doubles and CF Grady Sizemore had just 73 RBI despite 28 homers and 38 doubles. While having even a faded Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup will probably ease the Knights’ run-scoring woes in ’10 to a degree, the club decided to focus on improving the offensive attack overall. That was the probable reasoning behind the selection of three-year veteran LF Juan Rivera in the early rounds of the draft. Rivera played for LF Central rival Pocono from 2005 through 2007 and posted a career .316 average and .878 OPS. His last season with the Chin Music, 2007, was also his finest, when he batted .338 with 17 homers, 53 RBI and a .921 OPS in 115 games. The knock on Rivera is that he is injury-prone and has never proven his worth over 162 games. That should not be too much of a worry with the Knights, since Rivera will be playing under Mitch Pak’s extensive platoon system. Rivera will probably share playing time in left with returning Knight Jason Kubel (19, 65, .243 in ’09) and, to a lesser degree, Luke Scott (13, 48, .229) and will likely not have more than 400 at bats in ’10.

The Knights were also thinking about offense when they drafted 26 year old second baseman Alberto Callaspo. While not technically a rookie (he had a cup of coffee with the Grizzlies last year, during which he hit .295), Callaspo was taken as insurance in the event that returning veteran Clint Barmes isn’t up to being the full-time second baseman (a real problem area for the Knights since the departure of Mark Loretta some years back). In 106 games at second and short for the Knights last year, Barmes hit a solid .290 with 11 homers and .795 OPS, but he shared the second base job with incumbent Ty Wigginton. The Knights had concerns over Barmes’ inability to effectively hit right-handed pitching and his glove work was suspect as well. Callaspo and Barmes are the only second-basemen on the Knights roster right now, so look for them to compete for the starting job as the spring progresses.

A somewhat intriguing choice by the club was the selection of 41 year old Gary Sheffield in the 12th round. At this stage of his career, Sheffield is mostly a designated hitter, although scouts maintain that he can be useful as a bottom-of-the-depth-chart corner outfielder. While he was out of the league in ’09, Sheffield has had a marvelous 12-year NASBL career, the last six with the Knights’ cross-Hudson rivals, the New Jersey Trash Heap. Sheffield ’s career average of .290 and a career OPS of .909 to go with 280 homers, 922 runs scored and 1,426 hits will likely merit serious Hall of Fame votes down the road. Figure to see Sheffield as a dangerous pinch-hitter and spot starter at both DH and in the outfield. Privately, the Knights are hoping that Sheffield will not be another in a string of faded veterans who come to New York to finish their NASBL careers and give the club almost nothing in the process. (See David Cone in ’03 and Mike Piazza and Jeff Kent in more recent years.)

The Knights suffered a PR disaster last year when Mitch Pak inexplicably failed to draft a second catcher behind Jason Kendall, requiring Kendall to catch all 162 games. The resulting overusage penalty ( Kendall , at age 35, had well over 600 official plate appearances, his highest number since ’02) sent the Knights into poor draft position in the middle rounds. While Mitch Pak was not enamored of any of the available catching talent in the ’10 draft (in a burst of prescience, he reportedly compared Georgia ’s overall #1 pick Matt Wieters to the Knights 2008 mega-bust Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a comparison subsequently validated by Baseball Prospectus), he clearly needed to ensure that the club had enough catching talent for the upcoming season. Choosing quantity over quality, Pak selected Ronny Paulino, Rod Barajas and, in the 13th round, Jason Varitek to don the tools of ignorance for the Knights this year.

Varitek, 38, is the grizzled veteran of the group and will be entering his 11th year in the league. He is regarded primarily as a defensive asset now and will probably be used by the Knights as a late-inning defensive replacement. Knights fans will recall Varitek from his career here that spanned from 2003 through 2006. His best year as a Knight came in 2004, when he hit 29 homers and knocked in 88 runs. Barajas, 34, has only played 276 games over three seasons in the NASBL and owns a career average of .262. His best season came with the Texas Thunderbirds in 2006, when he hit .293 with 18 homers, 58 RBI and an .841 OPS. He is considered to be a fair at best defensive catcher. Paulino, at 28 the baby of the group, last played in the NASBL in 2008, when he split 63 games and 161 at bats between Lehigh Valley and Troy . In 195 career NASBL games, Paulino has a .260 average and .663 OPS. He will most likely start the season second on the catching depth chart. Clearly, the Knights are hoping that this trio will perform respectably as a single unit, since their individual performances will probably be underwhelming, to be charitable.

In the later rounds, the Knights also drafted veteran Julio Lugo, chiefly to back up #1 shortstop Cristian Guzman. Despite an ability to play both infield and outfield positions and some pop in his bat, Lugo has had a very spotty NASBL career. While his resume indicates that he started in the league back in 2001, when he had a solid rookie season with the Canyon Country Cannons (.274, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .726 OPS), he bounced around after that and missed the 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2009 seasons. He last full season in the league came in 2006 with Lake Champlain , when he hit .278 with 3 homers, 59 RBI and 95 runs scored. He last swung a bat in the NASBL in 2007 with Troy , hitting .284.

With their final pick in the draft, the Knights brought back utilityman Ty Wigginton, to back up Michael Young at third. Wigginton has spent the last three of his four NASBL seasons with the Knights, with varying degrees of success. His best season came in 2008, when he led the team with 30 homers and 86 RBI, but his success was lost in the giant mound of cow flop of that 118-loss debacle. The Knights like Wigginton’s hard-nosed makeup but were disappointed at his lackluster ’09 numbers (16 homers, 45 RBI, .253) once he started to share time with Clint Barmes, and eventually cut him. With Young manning the hot corner in ’10 and with second being covered by Barmes and newcomer Alberto Callaspo, Wigginton will probably not see much playing time.

On the pitching side, after drafting Josh Johnson with their first pick, the Knights refocused on rebuilding the middle relief staff, one of the team’s strengths in 2009. The Knights cut five relievers after the ’09 season, retaining only closer Chad Qualls (4-2, 2.86, 9 saves) and middlemen Jeremy Affeldt (1-4, 2.86, 1.23 WHP) and 40 year old lefty longman Darren Oliver (3-2, 3.47, 1.25 WHP). While the Knights are banking on the strength of their rotation, particularly the top three starters, to provide substantial innings in order to take the pressure off the pen, Mitch Pak is not losing his focus on the need for solid middle relief in the event that a starter gets blown out (which is not uncommon in the NASBL).

Thus, coming to the Knights are three new bullpen arms – and one returning friend. Making his NASBL debut this season is 25 year old righty Tyler Clippard. For MLB’s Washington Nationals in 2009, Clippard put up excellent numbers in relief – a 4-2 record with a 2.69 ERA in 41 appearances spanning 60 IP. What really captured the Knights’ attention regarding the rookie was his 1.13 WHP and a miniscule .172 average against. Scouts around the league have indicated that Clippard has a nasty fastball (67 strikeouts in 60 innings) but that he has bouts of wildness (32 walks). Recently retired Knights legend Mike Mussina, now a special roving instructor with the club, will no doubt be working with Clippard as the season draws closer.

Another NASBL rookie joining the Knights pen is righthander Phil Coke. The organization is hoping that the 27 year old hurler will have the same measure of success he did last year with MLB’s New York Yankees, for whom he posted a 4-3 record and 1.07 WHP. The big knock on Coke is that he allows too many home runs and too many extra base hits, as evidenced by his high 4.50 ERA, which was the result of too many earned runs (30) being plated despite not a lot of hits allowed (44).

36 year old Tim Byrdak made his NASBL debut last season with Outlaw and had a good season despite being used sparingly. In 26 appearances with the Wales , spanning 25.1 innings, Byrdak, who has developed a forkball in recent years, was 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.24 WHP. Like Tyler Clippard, Byrdak does not give up a lot of hits but does have a tendency to wildness and the longball.

Finally, the Knights welcome Octavio Dotel back to the organization as part of the middle relief corps. Dotel, 35, was drafted by the Knights in 2009 after having missed the previous three seasons due to various injuries. Dotel rewarded the club with a solid year, striking out 59 in 53 innings while walking just 26 and posting a WHP of 1.37.

In conclusion, this page sees the Knights as fielding an improved team on both sides of the ball. However, the lack of a big-time, 40-homer slugger in the A-Rod or Pujols class will continue to keep this team out of serious playoff contention. If everyone performs up to expectations, we believe the Knights can finish over .500, possibly with 83 wins, in 2010.