Burlington, VT
The opening round of the 2010 NASBL Rookie & Free Agent Draft was both compelling (8 of the 16 picks were made by teams other than their original owner) and deep with talent. Rather than go through the silly exercise of HAVING AN IMMEDIATELY IMPORTANT OPINION (something the WLL can't resist), we'll simply turn to the experts and see what they have to say about the 16 shiny new toys. The experts are the folks over at Baseball Prospectus and all material is from their Essential Guide to the 2010 Baseball Season.
1. GRK Matt Wieters - Wieters didn't walk as nearly as much expected, symptomatic of someone who's pressing, and the decreased selectivity could also explain the power drop. We still expect big things from him, even if he doesn't sign autographs for five thousand people using only two fishes and five loaves of bread. Comparables - Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sherman Obando, Charles Johnson, Steve Decker
2. VFS* Tommy Hanson - Hanson will be in the rotation in 2010, and with an improved changeup and better command within the strike zone, he could move into elite status over the next few years. Comparables - Jason Bere, Wade Davis, Kevin Gross, Jimmy Haynes
3. OJW* Elvis Andrus - Andrus wasn't drop-dead good, mind you, not with an OPS just over 700. Nor does it mean he won't be good in the future; he's just not there yet. The good news is he's still six to eight years away from his prime. Comparables - Edgar Renteria, Oman Infante, Alcides Escobar, Luis Rivas
4. TRY Pablo Sandoval - El Osezno is not the sort of player where pat assertions about regression to leaguewide marks for line-drive rates or BABIP mean much. His exceptional plate coverage makes him ore dangerous because he won't just try to hit your pitch; he can hit your pitch. He's in line to launch lava-hot liners after an aggressive off-season conditioning program. Comparables - David Wright, Carlos Baerga, Michael Barrett, Scott Rolen
5. NYK Josh Johnson - Johnson finally threw off the still-smoldering wreckage of Joe Giardi's Marlins stint. Reasons for [future] acquiring team to exercise caution: by virtue of his two injury-afflicted years, Johnson experienced a big jump in his workload, and fatigue may be an issue, especially as his ERA increased every month of the season, rising from 2.60 in April to 4.11 in September. Comparables - Ed Halicki, Pete Vuckovich, Gaylord Perry, David Goltz
6. ILL Chris Carpenter - His story isn't finished yet. (A)fter last season's exploits, another bit of greatness or another disappearance onto the DL seem to be the poles he operates from, with little chance of anything in between. Comparables - Clay Carroll, Jason Grimsly, Julian Tavarez, Tanyon Sturtze
7. ILL* Gordon Beckham - His skill sets work even better at 2b, and his bat will be even more valuable up the middle. Players who move this quickly (through the system) tend to be stars, and there's an excellent chance that when you visit The Cell three years from now, you'll be greeted by a sea of No. 15 jerseys. Comparables - Ron Hunt, Ken Keltner, Dale Berra, Bob Bailey
8. ILL* Brett Anderson - What's surprising is how much of a forward leap he took, and he now looks like a potential All-Star. His [stuff] was always advanced for his years, but it was with his fastball that he took the biggest step forward in 2009. Anderson has been upgraded from good to great. Comparables - Renyel Pinto, Scott Olsen, Jaime Garcia, Glendon Rusch
9. GCG David Price - The most troubling aspect of his season was his struggles with his vaunted slider, which had been considered a plus-pitch. It generated swings and misses just 4.8% of the time, 4th lowest rate in the league. He'll have to restore his feel for that pitch in order to fulfill the lofty expectations set for him. Comparables - Sean Marshall, Britt Burns, Steve Cooke, Chris Nabholz
10. HHA Andrew McCutchen - He has all the tools necessary for stardom, including great speed, rapidly emerging power, and the type of range and arm to become an outstanding defensive CFer. The Pirates have had their share of phenoms fizzle out, but McCutchen is the real deal. Comparables - Ellis Burks, Rontrez Johnson, Winston Ficklin, Kevin Belcher
11. LVI* Rick Porcello - He is another in a line of recent, high-draft picks whose minor-league numbers are completely useless for analysis. He fully deserved his spot in the rotation last year - other than a couple small hiccups he was solid and consistent. The worry shifts toward keeping his pitch counts and innings in check, as he's only 21. Comparables - Jon Garland, Buddy Carlyle, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Hartshorn
12. LVI* Phil Hughes - He was successful in the pen last year. In the short term, that role was exactly what he needed, but in the long term, limiting him to one-inning appearances would be wasteful. Comparables - Stan Williams, Fausto Carmona, Don Cardwell, Lindy McDaniel
13. VFS J.A. Happ - He benefited from a lofty 85% rate of stranding runners, well above the league average of 72%, and he may not strike out enough hitters to make his high walk rate stand up. Happ won't be excellent every time out, but he should be a rotation stalwart for years to come. Comparables - Dave Williams, Vaughn Eshelman, John Halama, Rich Hill
14. HHA* Kendry Morales - By all accounts, he had a surprising 2009 season. Credit Morales for adjusting to big-league pitching and making solid contact far more often than he had in the past. Even if PECOTA suggests a major regression, this is one case where you're better off letting go of those numbers. Comparables - Ryan Garko, Shea Hillenbrand, Bob Hamelin, Paul Sorrento
15. SPR* Nyjer Morgan - Although he'd been previously criticized for sloppy outfield play and bad routes, Morgan's dramatic defensive improvement and high OBP made him a 5-win player last year. As wonderful as all that is, and as much fun as it is to root for someone with his back story, the enhancement is not likely to last. His low walk rate and nonexistent power make his offensive value too reliant no a slap-and-dash approach to maintain a high batting average. He's already 29, but his speed and defense should age well and he has shown he can be a starting CFer. But is Nationals fans expect an All-Star, he's not the droid they're looking for. Comparables - Milt Thompson, Kerry Robinson, Alex Cole, Endy Chavez
16. OWJ Nelson Cruz - His power is not a ballpark fiction, but he's a fly-ball hitter in a fly-ball-hitting environment finally logging a full season. Between his Ks and fly balls, racking up RBIs will depend on his hitting more homers. Nelson is a fine regular in his prime, he just shouldn't be asked to be the best hitter in a contending lineup.
* - Indicates traded pick
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
5 comments:
Thanks for sharing this - interesting reading. It seemed a bit odd that the comparibles in most cases did not match with the descriptions. For instance the Hanson write-up says he could move to elite status over the next few years yet none of the comparibles -- Bere, Davis, Gross and Haynes -- ever approached the "elite" status. I guess this shows that no matter how bright the futures of this promising first round seem, most of them will end up falling short of expectations.
Agree on the odd comps at times, FWIW here's the book definition: The 4th highest-scoring comparable players as determined by PECOTA. Occasionally, a player's top comparables will not be representative of the larger PECOTA sample. All comparables represent a snapshot of how the listed player was performing at the same age as the current player, so if a 23 YO player is compared to Sosa, he's actually compared to a 23 YO Sosa, not the decrepit Orioles version of Sosa or his career as a whole.
I would rather have the Burlington Press recap than BP. It was a letdown to see that Wieters was compared to Salty 'til I read that Hanson is the next Jimmy Haynes...or that Kendry Morales is Ryan Garko,etc.
Comparing Chris Carpenter to Tanyon Sturtze is utter nonsense.
To continue what Justin said about the comps:
I believe the comps from Prospectus are based on their current year stats and stuff, not their future value. If I remember correctly Bere was a late pick by the White Sox and then turned into a top notch prospect. On top of that his first year stats are pretty comparable to what Hanson did and everyone thought he was going to be a top SP for a long time. Shows how hit and miss it can be sometimes with prospects...
Post a Comment