Friday, January 9, 2009

An Evaluation: The Dust Settles on Vermont's Year of Trading

Burlington Free Press

Halfway through the 1st block of the 2008 NASBL season it was apparent that the Vermont Fighting Sioux did not have the horses to make a strong playoff run; a fact that was predicted by this blogger almost 365 days ago. Vermont's roster was in need of a shake up. Filled with aging and underperforming stars, Sioux management set out to turn Vermont's heroes of yesteryear into stars of tomorrow.

This article is not meant to rehash each trade in detail, heck, they've all been posted in the past. What it will do is take a hard look at Vermont's personnel actions between April '08 and January '09, during which 9 trades were made involving a total of 31 players and picks.

During the '08 NASBL season, Vermont was a seller. The advent of the Hot Stove season saw a switching of gears with Vermont using acquired picks to gather proven talent. In all, the assets acquired and traded away fall into three categories; 1) draft picks, 2) players with value for this coming '09 season and beyond and 3) throw in players or those who have suffered injuries leaving their future value unknown. We will look at each category and see if it resulted in a win or loss for Vermont and then render a final opinion based on the overall picture.

Category 1 - Net Result of Draft Picks

Traded Away - 7th and 9th round picks

Acquired - 3rd, 4th, 7th, 2-8th round picks

Verdict - A win for Vermont

Category 2 - Players with Present & Future Value (listed in descending order of '08 MLB Win Shares)

Traded Away - Derek Jeter, John Lackey, Darren Oliver

Acquired - Carlos Quentin, Raul Ibanez, Aki Iwamura, Braden Looper, Jack Wilson

Verdict - While one should never argue that there is a direct correlation between Win Shares and NASBL value, the above represents +46 Win Shares for Vermont.

Category 3 - Players with Limited/Unknown Future Value

Traded Away - Reggie Willits, Billy Wagner, Jorge Posada, Ron Mahay

Acquired - Juan Pierre, Ryan Langerhans, Carlos Ruiz, Santiago Casilla

Verdict - The best players here are Posada and Wagner and if they can regain some of their past value, it's definitely a net loss for Vermont.

Final Verdict -
Vermont's biggest gains were in personnel, especially the bat of Carlos Quentin. That, combined with a modest improvement in draft picks, leads us to conclude that Vermont should be better off in the 2009 NASBL season as a result of the 8 trades made over the past year. But you all know where the proof ultimately lies.

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