Fighting Sioux - Comparing 2007 and 2008 Teams

The Burlington Free Press

Much has been made (at least in this paper) of the talent drain in Vermont's dugout over the past off season. But in the interest of not being fodder for a future firejoemorgan.com column, we will take an objective look at the issue.

The 2007 version of the Vermont Fighting Sioux set a franchise record for victories with 93 and reached the Less Filling LCS. If VFS fans are to expect the same in '08, Sioux GM/Coach Justin Rabidoux will need to bring the loaded dice to each game.

By using Win Share calculations available at hardballtimes.com, the cloudy future becomes much clearer for our sabermetric fans.

The 2007 Sioux roster and Win Shares

1b Albert Pujols - 39
2b Robinson Cano - 18
ss Derek Jeter - 33
3b Ryan Zimmerman - 25
LF Emil Brown - 15
CF Mark Kotsay - 12
RF Brian Giles - 23
Ca Jorge Posada - 24
DH Carlos Delgado - 24
SP1 John Lackey - 17
SP2 Brett Myers - 11
SP3 Ervin Santana - 13
SP4 Jeff Suppan - 12
SP5 Aaron Cook - 11
Cl Billy Wagner - 12

Total '07 WS = 289

The 2008 Sioux roster and Win Shares

1b Pujols - 32
2b Cano - 21
ss Jeter - 24
3b Zimmerman - 21
LF Eric Byrnes - 26
CF Coco Crisp - 16
RF Casey Blake - 12
Ca Posada - 26
DH - Frank Thomas - 17
SP1 Lackey - 22
SP2 Suppan - 8
SP3 Cook - 10
SP4 Santana - 3
SP3 Miguel Batista - 12
Cl - Wagner - 11

Total '08 WS = 261

The '07 total was 289 and the '08 total is 261, for a difference of 28 WS. A WS equals 1/3 of a win meaning this year's version of the Sioux should expect a drop of 9 wins. That puts the Sioux win total in the mid-80s, which is familiar territory. Additionally, this analysis does not take into account bench and pitching depth beyond the scheduled starters. Expanding the analysis to look at this results in a dreary outlook in 2008; last year's Vermont team had a deep bullpen, solid bench and the luxury of low-inning starters Josh Johnson and Francisco Liriano who combined for a 17-8 record with a 3.70 ERA.


Vermont's roster stands at 16 players; the rest of the roster will be filled by one supplemental draft pick and 13 rookie/free agent draft selections (and don't forget there is no 1st round pick this year). To expect similar depth for this year's team is unrealistic, unlikely and just not gonna happen.

Bottom line - Vermont lost too much to injury, old age and diminishing skills (no steroids here Sen. Mitchell) to reach the 90 win mark again. 82-80 and no playoffs is the early preseason prediction which is sure to bring the boo birds out to the park this year.