KNIGHTS LOOK TO NEXT LEVEL, BUT FACE SUBSTANTIAL ISSUES IN 2008

(New York Daily Mirror – December 28, 2007)

NEW YORK – One year ago, Knights GM Mitch Pak stood at a press conference before a gaggle of hard-boiled, skeptical New York sportswriters and media talking heads and proclaimed that the Knights were heading in the right direction. He pointed to the team’s 15-game improvement from 2005 to 2006 and predicted that, if everything went according to plan and the players performed to their potentials, the Knights would not only surpass their franchise-record win total of 71 (set in 2003) and not only finish over .500, but would actually contend for a division title in 2007. Much derisive literary snorting and over the air skepticism followed.

However, after the Knights’ 87 win season in 2007, their contention for the division title and their chase of a wild-card berth that lasted into the last week of the season, Pak has gained substantial credibility in the tough New York sports media, which is famous (or rather infamous) for its reluctance in recognizing and appreciating success.

But with the Knights entering their eighth season in the NASBL, and with their fans finally tasting contending baseball and naturally wanting more, Pak faces the daunting challenge of taking his team to the next level – the NASBL playoffs. Knights fans feel they deserve to experience the heady feel of October baseball, after so many years of disappointment and frustration. Its hard to argue with them.

And there lies the problem for Pak. Its one thing to transform an awful 55-win team into a merely lousy 70 win team, as Pak did from 2005 to 2006. Its quite another to make a good team, which the Knights were in 2007, into a playoff team. The team must not only improve, it must avoid backsliding, which is no easy task in this highly competitive league.
A critical look at the Knights 2007 season reveals some troubling issues that may transform into substantial challenges for Pak and the Knights in 2008.

1. Run Production

You wouldn’t think that run production would be a problem in 2008, since the ’07 team was a terrific offensive group. The team’s 390 doubles led the entire NASBL, they were second in hits with 1,674 and were third in team batting with a franchise-history mark of .288. Yet, a dispassionate observer could look at the Knights roster and raise some valid issues with the team’s ability to score runs next year, absent a terrific draft or a high impact trade.

Clearly, some of the Knights hitters had career seasons, never to be approached again. Bill Hall, a utility player who is regarded as having some pop in his bat at best, smashed 49 homers and knocked in 134 runs, putting him into Manny Ramirez-Alex Rodriguez-David Ortiz territory. Hall’s 2006 numbers, while good (17 HR, 54 RBI, .307 BA), did not portend the kind of performance Hall provided in 2007. The Knights should be a little concerned about getting a phone call from George Mitchell should he ever continue his probe into the use of steroids in baseball.

Hall aside, the Knights also shouldn’t expect a repeat of the run production provided by the team’s first base platoon of Olmedo Saenz and Adam LaRoche, who combined for 37 homers and 114 RBI, as well as a .338 batting average. Saenz, a career utility player, is another hitter who would have fallen under Mitchell’s radar, as his startling numbers in a part-time role (15 HR’s, 45 RBI, .359 BA in 167 AB’s) certainly raised eyebrows.

The Knights also cannot count on Jason Kendall batting .311 ever again in his career, although his home run total of zero is more typical of Kendall’s M.O. The Knights are still ruing the decision to trade Bengie Molina in favor of keeping Kendall. Rumors inside Knights camp are that the team will be releasing both Kendall and his lighter-hitting backup, Gerald Laird, if neither of them can be traded before cut down day in January.

The Knights also have to be concerned about team captain Michael Young, who flew under the radar in 2007 because the Knights were in contention until the end of September. A year after leading the club with 29 homers, 121 runs batted in and a .349 batting average, Young, who was rumored to be hurt all season, hit a paltry 4 homers, knocked in just 60 runs and hit a light .276. The Knights will need Young to rebound in a BIG way in 2008 if they are going to contend.

Still, there are some bright signs offensively for the Knights in 2008. Hideki Matsui (47 homers in 2005) will be back for a full season, and if he can approach the .370 average he posted in 154 at bats in ’07, the Knights will be that much more dangerous. The team also appears to be set for years to come at both third and in center field, with Garrett Atkins (.292, 21 homers and 104 RBI) and Grady Sizemore (20 homers, 58 RBI, .303) turning in All-Star turns. However, other productive players like Jacque Jones cannot be expected to repeat their ’07 performances.

It will be nearly impossible for the Knights to approach their 2007 offensive numbers, to say nothing about equaling them, without a major infusion of new blood. With the Knights not having a top 5 pick in the ’08 rookie draft and their trading stock somewhat thin, this will be a daunting task.

2. Pitching

2007 saw the Knights set a number of new franchise pitching records. It was the first season that all five starters recorded at least 10 wins (rookie Matt Cain led with 15) and also the first season that each starter recorded 150 strikeouts or more. The starters’ total of 59 wins also set a franchise record. The bullpen recorded a team record 44 saves, with the majority of them (37) tallied by rookie Takashi Saito. The club finally, for the first time in its history, allowed fewer runs (858) than it scored (897). Three of the starters hurled over 200 innings for the first time since 2001.

However, and as is the norm with the Knights, the stats are misleading. Three of the team’s starters, including Cain, issued over 100 walks; every starter except Cain allowed more hits than innings pitched; and none of the starters recorded an ERA under 5.00, joining the putrid 2005 staff in that regard.

It’s no secret that the Knights are actively shopping Dontrelle Willis, who was 12-13, 5.28 in 2007 after posting a 14-win season in 2006. However, Willis has drawn little interest from other GM’s to date, raising the possibility that the Knights will start the 2008 campaign with six starters on the roster, since Adam Wainwright (5-5, 4.30 as a middle reliever in 2007) will most likely move into the rotation from the bullpen next year.

While GM Mitch Pak has declined to comment on the topic, Knights insiders speculate that Orlando Hernandez (10-8, 5.57 in 2007) and Willis would split a starting spot, with Hernandez getting the majority of the starts, if a starter cannot be moved by the roster cut-down day. Willis may also be moved into the bullpen as a lefty specialist. Despite having struggled in New York, there are no plans to shop Barry Zito, who notched 11 wins in 2007, although sources close to Mitch Pak’s thinking believe that he would be moved in a package.

The Knights would appear to be set in the bullpen, as at least two of the Knights’ three set-up men - Chad Qualls (5-6, 2.55 ERA, two saves), Scott Linebrink (3-2, 4.11) and Kevin Gregg (2-1, 4.62) – will probably be back in 2008 to set up for Saito.

The most nagging question facing Mitch Pak is whether the pitching next year can be good enough to support an offense than almost certainly will not be as productive in 2008 as it was in 2007. While there’s no doubt that Pak will be looking to upgrade his offensive production next season, real issues exist as to whether next year’s staff, even if composed of the same pitchers next year, can be as effective. Time will tell.