NASBL Diamond Notes

Burlington Free Press

NASBL Diamond Notes – 2/1/08

Taste Great East

Despite Honolulu SS Miguel Tejada’s (seen here apparently surrendering to 'roid officials) alleged legal/pharmaceutical issues he will remain an asset to GM Stan Petruska and at 32 figures to benefit from the strong Pacific trade winds for at least the new few years pending an unexpected stint in the California Penal League. SP Brandon Webb, a former #1 draft pick, doesn’t always get the love reserved for NASBL’s elite pitchers, but he remains a top tier #1 starter as he enters the typical prime years for starting pitchers. NASBL’s favorite bridesmaids, the Springfield Isotopes, figure to be in the mix again thanks to C.C. Sabathia, who this past season became the first black pitcher in history to win the NASBL Cy Young. Whatever C.C. starts, figure on Jonathan Papelbon to finish. Everyone’s favorite goggle-wearing River Dance is now the guy in Springfield with longtime SPR fireman Joe Nathan shipped out of town in a deal that brought Adam Dunn’s formidable RHP-mashing bat to he middle of the Springfield lineup. While NASBL Commissioner Steve Beard continues his best Bud Selig impression by serving as the league’s CEO while also being a team owner, (of the Lake Champlain Cannibals), he figures to have more success than Bud’s Brewers. And by success, we mean continuing to win games in the LCC fashion we’ve all become familiar with – 11-9 affairs with little regard to the public health and safety of the league’s (and his own team’s) pitchers. In fact, GM Beard’s roster contains only 3 pitchers (all starters) heading into the draft. In the ultra competitive TG South Beard’s boys will need huge production from their offense to make the playoffs as last years 97 wins kept them on the outside looking in. Now for the good news, with Curtis Granderson setting the table for mashers such as John Kerry’s personal favorite Manny Ortez (er, David Ortiz) and the ageless Chipper Jones, the offense should hold up its end of the bargain and get to 11 runs on a consistent basis. With the abovementioned three teams all clocking in at 97+ wins, simple math dictates this leaves little in the way of victories for the TG South’s remaining team, the Illinois Chow Chows. GM Brad Sherlag’s club did improve 10 wins over their inaugural 2006 season 59 win campaign, but there’s still a lot of catching up to do. Luckily for Sherlag, CF Carlos Beltran still patrols the outfield and anchors the batting order. A solid pitching rotation featuring a quartet of 200+ inning eaters figures to receive even more help via the upcoming draft; Sherlag holds multiple early picks thanks to shrewd trades made over the past year. With Joe Nathan now in tow, the closers spot, which up to now in Illinois has done very little in the way of “closing” and “saving”, is now a strength. Nathan is a steady veteran and Sherlag was smart to bring him aboard.

Taste Great South

First one to 71 wins gets the prize. Last year’s division winner, the now relocated Texas Thunderbirds, racked up 70 wins in route to setting an NASBL history low number of wins for a division winner, an “honor” formerly held by the 80-win 2001 Pocono Woodsmen. But that is history, and this division has a long history of great teams putting up huge win totals, and that is exactly what we expect to see in 2008. The Leigh Valley Iron Pigs (nee TTB) figure to be in the mix again thanks to a retooled lineup courtesy of the big trade pulled off by new GM Kevin Burns. The new addition of Carl Crawford and Chase Utley (along with RP Matt Capps - pictured here for the first time so you know who the heck he is) will go a long way to insuring a repeat division championship for this franchise. While Crawford’s production dipped a bit last year in both the HR and K categories, it’s only fair to mention he was the victim of non-stop trade rumors and with a new, stable environment, expect his production to return to an elite level. There’s not much to say about Utley beyond he is simply awesome and will be very comfortable and familiar hitting in the #3 spot ahead of big bopper Ryan Howard. Outlaw Josey Wales will score a lot and give up a little. The Ramirez brothers (Manny and Aramis) flat-out do their thing and former 1^st round selection Adrian Gonzalez continues his natural progression in the power category while his batting average creeps closer to where we expect it to be for the next few years, .300+. The pitching staff is very good and too deep to even mention every hurler. Jake Peavy’s ascent to superstardom is complete; he can now double as a Cy Young candidate and mentor to fellow youngster Scott Kazmir, who is poised for a huge breakout season. In New Jersey, one can only hope last year’s 60 wins was a blip on the radar for this storied franchise. Jeremy Bonderman continues to mix flashes of brilliance with agonizing streaks of inconsistency and at age 25 -- yes, he is still only 25 -- the four-year veteran still has plenty of time to get the Trash Heap wagon moving in the right direction. Alex Rodriguez is, well, Rodriguez and remains one of the most feared sticks in NASBL history. Alex is a FIVE time TG MVP, a number matched only by Barry Bonds; but the big difference is A-Rod has plenty of time to add to that number while Barry was last seen, come to think of it, he hasn’t been seen much at all lately. A-Rod figures to have a career year this year (and that is a scary but true fact) despite the recent increase in his strikeout totals. But to tarnish A-Rod for striking out a lot is a lot like chastising Cindy Crawford for her mole. Johnny Miller’s Georgia Roadkill were just that last year, to the tune of a franchise record 105 losses. Scoring runs won’t be a problem this year behind a downright scary OF featuring Magglio Ordonez, Vlad Guerrero, Alexis Rios and Nick Markakis. They will all take turns driving in lineup sparkplug Jimmy Rollins who will use his 700+ at bats to make a run at the NASBL single season record for runs scored of 183 set by Mr. Bonds in 2002. Perhaps the only thing keeping Jimmy from the record is his OK but not great OBP of .345. For years in Georgia, Rollins followed a slow-and-steady progression curve, lingering for years as a middle-of-the-road shortstop before busting out at age 27 with a huge 2006. He followed it with an even better 2007, and should challenge for the TG MVP. Now at age 29, his is smack dab in the middle of his prime, but he probably won't hit more homers or steal more bases in the years to come, so hop on for a joy ride, as this is sure to be his year.

Less Filling West

Led by two time NASBL World Series winners, Dallas Fort Worth, this is a formidable division that saw all four teams top the 87-win mark last year. DFW leader for life, Red Robbins, will try to milk his aging outfield of part timers (Ken Griffey, Jr., Barry Bonds and Milton Bradley) for one more run at the title. Greg Maddux, while now a hittable pitcher, still brings double digit win potential to a rotation lacking a true ace. The real hurlers reside in the Dallas pen, closer Francisco Rodriguez leads a group of stingy relievers who have been through the wars in Dallas. The ever-reliable K-Rod should deliver again in 2008, as he attempts to pile up 40 saves and return Dallas to the playoffs. A whiz of the whiff, he always lives up to his nickname, he should once again striking out a ton of batters -- a feat Spur fans have grown accustomed to in each of his first three seasons. He projects to have a WHIP and ERA a little higher than usual, but we detect no reason not to excuse that as the wrong side of statistical fluctuation. The 26-year old continues to be one of the top closers in NASBL. The Seattle Pilots were last year’s LF Wild Card team, losing an exciting 7-game series to Vermont. They return just about every key piece to last year’s team, with the big question mark being the starting rotation - a question that could be answered by the continued maturation of “King” Felix Hernandez. Hernandez hasn't lived up to the hype generated by his rookie season. Sure, we expect his win-loss record and his ERA to continue to improve, but the stats less influenced by luck -- WHIP, strikeouts -- actually seem to be digressing. Hopefully for Frank Pennylegion, the 22-year-old can turn the corner, dominate the league, win a Cy Young, and make everyone recognize the talent that made him arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball once upon a time. No doubt, he has electric stuff, and that stuff should translate into greatness sooner rather than later. His is a potential ace, and his production best start to match his hype because his name has outweighed his production to date. Ichiro Suzuki continues to defy age (as evidenced by his stolen base totals) and remains the key to the Seattle attack. If Ichiro can get on, expect Mark Teixeira and Paul Kornerko to drive him in. Rafael Soriano should transition nicely into a bona fide top closer, don’t be surprised if he’s the next big closer in the NASBL in the upcoming years. For the Miami Surf to make a run this year, media darling David Wright must lead the team as he represents the team’s main offensive threat. Wright is coming into his own, and if it weren’t for a certain A-Rod, would be the best all-around 3b in NASBL. The Surf will win their share of close games behind a dominant rotation and crazy shutdown closer, J.J. Putz. Josh Beckett will challenge for the LF Cy Young award, don’t be surprised if his main competition comes from teammates Cole Hamels and Derek Lowe. Ken Anderson’s inaugural effort from the Haymakers of Troy was impressive, to the tune of an 87-win season. This year’s team figures to be even better; the offense will be bolstered by recent addition Matt Holliday, an MVP candidate if there ever was one. The real gem in Troy however, is Fausto Carmona. Ken grabbed Fausto in the 11^th round in what has to be the steal of the last 5 drafts. Carmona repaid his owner’s faith and is a 20-win candidate.

Less Filling Central

The NASBL blog is full of reasons why the Vermont Fighting Sioux will face an uphill battle as they try to make their first ever consecutive trips to the playoffs. The offense is solid, how can it not be with Mr. Everything Albert Pujols penciled into the #3 spot. While he remains one of the toughest outs in the league, expect a dip in Pujols’ production this season as he enters camp with a bevy of injuries; the man is a walking game of Operation with his shoulder, leg, foot and plantar fasciitis woes sure to raise their ugly head at some point in 2008. Vermont’s career leader in wins with 43 (against only 22 losses) John Lackey will look to improve his lead in that category over teammate Jeff Suppan (40-25 career). Lackey, 29, developed into a sure-fire ace last season, finishing 2^nd in the LF in wins and ERA behind Cy Young winner, Johan Santana. The Sioux hope to be a contender again and Lackey is going to be at the front of it. The right-hander has improved each of the past four seasons and can be counted on among the top 10 starting pitchers in the NASBL. He is not quite the knockout pitcher the other elite starters are, but he is still capable of approaching 200 strikeouts and getting his WHIP under 1.200. For the first time since Moses descended form Mt. Sanai with the 10 Commandments (or 1999 if you’re one of those theory of evolution crazies),

the Pocono franchise did not win the LF Central. In fact, Bill Anderson’s bunch finished in 3^rd place. While Johan pitched his team to the league’s 3^rd best ERA, the offense was in the bottom half of the league for average, HRs and runs. You can count on Santana to be the top of the heap again; in fact he’s joined in the rotation by an equally formidable duo in Dan Haren and John Smoltz. For Pocono to return to greatness, Prince Fielder will have to lead to offense. His meteoric rise to superstardom seems upon us with a 50-homer season not out of the question. But here's the scary part: he's only going to get better. Hidden beneath all the towering drives and the trots around the base paths was a subtle adjustment in his approach at the plate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio continues to improve. Some of that improvement comes from NASBL hurlers learning not to mess around and pitch him in the zone, the fact remains he doesn’t go chasing those pitches. Understandably, with his adjustment at the plate came a corresponding rise in batting average. Could someday a .310, .315, .330 batting average accompany his 50 home runs? Believe it. If Prince is Batman, then the role of Robin is best played by CF Torii Hunter who is set for a career year at the plate. The long, slow ascension of Mitch Pak’s New York Knights is almost complete. Last year’s 87 wins bested the franchise mark by a whopping 16. The love of every teenaged NYC female, Grady Sizemore is also cause for excitement for NYC’s true baseball fans. Grady’s batting average and homers may drop a bit, but he is now a more complete offensive player, if that makes any sense. He can get on base and is expected to have an OBP near .400. He can also run, 35 SBs is a strong possibility. And at only 25 years old, he is a clear talent on the rise, and his unique combination of power and speed -- we're talking 30-30 potential here -- makes him an elite NASBL CFer. Mitch’s real strength may lie in his young rotation, led by Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright. Pak has drafted extremely well in recent years (see Saito, Takashi for additional evidence) and it may very well pay off big time in 2008. Grundy County GM Jack Howard recently promised his squad would be “Peeking out of the cellar” this year, which is the unfortunate spot they’ve held in the standings for five of their seven years (the other two years GCG finished 3^rd). If that is to happen, it will be on the shoulders of Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Lowell and Justin Morneau; a decent quartet of bats and gloves if there ever was one. Unfortunately, none of them can play the OF, where help is badly needed. After years of using high draft picks on pitchers, the current rotation shows very little evidence of that anticipated excellence. It is a decent but ultimately hittable group. GCG does hold the #1 pick in the upcoming draft, so that combined with their solid corner infielders certainly does give credence to their aspirations to ascend from the cellar.