Springfield (AP) – Let’s
forgo the pleasantries (i.e. there have been a bunch of trades, we have a new owner,
yada-yada-yada). Print media in today’s
day and age does not have the resources for flowery language and the Springield
Times is no exception. Without further
adieu, the 2020 NASBL Mock Draft is below
1) Slatington
Bulldogs (from ILL) – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B)
Consider this:
Vlad Jr. came into MLB only 41 days after his 20th birthday,
put up a .772 OPS in 514 plate appearances, and it was a slight
disappointment. I guess this is what
happens when you hit .402 in AA as a 19-year-old and the consensus #1 prospect
in baseball. The Springfield Times
speaks every year about how success in MLB at an extremely young age usually
translates to sustained success. Success
at a young age/coupled with this type of prospect pedigree = CAN’T MISS. Due to some potential concerns about Vladito’s
defense, there are teams that may prefer Fernando Tatis Jr. here. Adam Leickel paid a huge price to move up in
this draft. With Corey Seager, Gleyber
Torres and Dansby Swanson on the Bulldogs roster already, Leickel clearly did
so with Vlad Jr. in mind here.
2) Phoenix
Pony Express – Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS)
Fernando Tatis Jr. came into MLB only 85 days after
his 20th birthday and absolutely set the world on fire from day 1 –
posting an absurd slash line of .317/.379/.590 in 372 plate appearances. Tatis Jr. accumulated 4.2 Wins Above
Replacement in his first 83 games in MLB as a 20-year-old due to his
otherworldly hitting and crazy instincts on the basepaths. Over a full season, that equates to around 8.4
WAR. Only Cody Bellinger generated more
than 8.4 WAR in MLB during 2019. Again –
Fernando Tatis Jr. is only 20 years old.
There are a few red flags with Tatis Jr. if you squint really, really
hard. Tatis Jr. committed 18 errors in
83 games at SS in MLB – an unsightly number which aligns with his minor league
error rates. In addition, he has been sidelined
three times in the past two seasons with significant injuries. The latest was a stress reaction in Tatis
Jr.’s lower back that caused him to miss every game after August 13th
in MLB’s season. I can speak from
experience that back injuries do not get better as you get older. These are all quibbles though and Joe Howard
can’t rush to the podium quick enough to hand Phoenix’s envelope with Tatis
Jr.’s name on it to Commissioner Beard.
3) Illinois
Chow Chows (from SBU) – Pete Alonso (1B)
The first two picks are off the board and neither of
MLB’s Rookies of the Year have been taken.
That will change with this pick one way or another. Brad Sherlag felt comfortable trading out of
the 1st pick in this draft because Pete Alonso and Yordan Alvarez
are still available here. Alonso was
MLB’s home run title winner and all-star game home run derby winner – slugging
a record 53 home runs as a rookie. With
693 plate appearances, the league had plenty of time to figure out any holes in
the Polar Bear’s swing, but pitchers were unable to do so. Uncharacteristically, Alonso does his damage
equally against righties and lefties – posting an identical OPS of .941 against
both. The Chows used a high draft pick a
few years back on Rhys Hoskins – so they could go with Yordan Alvarez with this
pick. However, Hoskins has never been
able to consistently hit right-handed pitchers.
As such, it will be hard to pass on a guy who you can plug in at cleanup
in every game for a player whose primary position starts with a “D”.
4) Pocono
Chin Music (from DEU) – Victor Robles (CF)
If any other team than the Chin Music were selecting
here, the Times would have written out Yordan Alvarez as the selection. However, though “rated” in left field, Alvarez
is essentially (and will always be) a DH.
The Chin Music already employ a guy who is uncarded defensively in Shohei
Ohtani. This makes it the only team that
essentially can’t select Alvarez with this pick. If the Chows choose Alvarez, then Alonso is
clearly the pick here. Otherwise, the
Times predicts that Ken Anderson will pivot to someone who can play in the
field as well. Victor Robles does more
than just play in the field, Robles plays in the field to a tune of a 1 in Centerfield
with a -4 arm. While the defense is
ahead of the offense at this point, there is a reason that the Nationals won
MLB’s World Series in 2019 while losing one of the premier outfielders in the
game during the offseason. Robles’ is
transcendent in centerfield, is still only 22, and has the prospect pedigree
for the bat to catch up. It is not hard
to forget that Robles was ahead of Juan Soto on everyone’s prospect lists as
the top young Nationals outfielder. Soto
only got the nod to the majors in 2018 due to a Robles injury. Even if the bat only gets to league average, Robles
would still be in every team’s lineup.
The defense is that special.
5) Slatington
Bulldogs (from LVI) – Yordan Alvarez (DH/LF)
Defense/Schmefense – Alvarez’ bat alone was worth
3.7 wins in only 87 games. How is that
you ask? Alvarez slashed an insane
.313/.412/.655 in route to winning the AL Rookie of the Year in MLB during
2019. The only guys in MLB with a higher
OPS in 2019 were a couple of former MVP’s in Christian Yelich and Mike Trout. The only guys with a higher OBP in 2019 were
Alex Bregman, Trout and Yelich. Yordan ‘s
career minor league slash line was .311/.395/.561. Yordan hit 50 homers with a 1.194 OPS between
AAA and the majors in 2019. Yordan hit
.412 with a .524 OBP and a .588 SLG during MLB’s World Series on the highest
stage against a staff with Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, et all. You get the point – Yordan Alvarez is a
hitting machine and there is no way he gets past Adam Leickel here.
6) Outlaw
Josey Wales – Austin Meadows (OF)
Ketel Marte is rated in the outfield but is better
suited at second base for this season.
As such Outlaw probably needs to upgrade its outfield - which includes a
plethora of defensively challenged corner outfielders/DH types (JD Martinez,
Ryan Braun, Nick Castellanos, Corey Dickerson). Meadows grades out as average according to
HAL and will not likely win many gold gloves.
More importantly though, the ball doesn’t make a “clank” sound when it
hits his glove in right field either.
This is a solid step ahead of all Mark Hildebrandt’s other corner
outfielders and is good enough. What
Meadows can do is hit. Meadows just
missed the appearance cut-off for last year’s draft – which has allowed him to
accrue a large sample size of 782 plate appearances at the MLB level with a
slash line of .290/.354/.534. Meadows
was a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball – so the production is no
fluke.
7) Dallas
Ft. Worth Spurs – Mike Soroka (SP)
Although “One day for Greinke, four days for crying
in your hanky” is a catchy meme, it probably won’t lead to another championship
for Red Robbins. At #7, Red gets his
pick of available starting pitchers.
While the starting pitching is not incredibly deep in this draft, there
is cream at the top. It can be argued
that Chris Paddack was more dominant, but there is no argument that no rookie
pitcher was better than Mike Soroka in MLB during 2019. Over 29 starts, Soroka amassed a 2.68 ERA – 3rd
in the National League as a 21/22-year-old.
Soroka did not have the gaudy strikeout numbers that many prefer in
today’s MLB, but Soroka has other skills that should translate to long term
success. Soroka led MLB’s National
League in home run suppression with 0.721 homers allowed per 9 innings. As a historically offensive league with tiny
ballparks – this may be the most valuable skill a pitcher could have in NASBL.
8) Pocono
Chin Music – Chris Paddack (SP)
Any time a MLB starting pitcher has a WHIP under
1.00 for an entire season, people should take notice. When this is accomplished by a rookie over
his first 26 starts, it should make people stand at attention. Paddack was a strikeout machine in the minors
(averaging a gaudy 11.7 K/9) while only allowing an ERA of 1.82 in starts
across three seasons. Paddack was so
good in MLB’s Spring Training that he broke camp with the team and never looked
back. MLB’s Padres were very careful
with Paddack’s pitch count in order to protect his arm. However, when he was on the mound, he was a
dominant force. Paddack reminds the
Times of another Chin Music starter – Noah Syndergaard. If they ever combine their powers for good
during a NASBL playoff run, Paddack and Thor could be leading the Chin
Music to the promised land.
9) Mt.
Pirongia Kiwis – Keston Hiura (2B)
Hiura’s availability at #9 is proof unto itself that
this is an incredibly deep draft. From
his time at UC Irvine through the minors and into the major leagues, Hiura has
hit at an elite level. In 84 games in
MLB, Hiura put up a slash line of .303/.368/.570 as a “middle infielder” and
only got better as the season progressed.
Note that middle infielder is in quotes.
Any analysis of defense (rudimentary or otherwise) rates Hiura
unfavorably. Hiura somehow committed an
unsightly 16 errors over less than a half season of work at 2B – with subpar
range to boot! The defense of Hiura is
the only reason he is still available here for the Kiwis. In the Times’ and (more importantly) Mike
Dickson’s minds, the bat more than makes up for the defense. Also, at 22 years old, Hiura can still
improve defensively. If that were to
occur, it would make Hiura one of the elite middle infielders in all NASBL and
an absolute steal at #9 in ANY draft.
10) Illinois
Chow Chows (from SPR) – Bo Bichette (SS)
The first two picks in this draft were both sons of
major leaguers. This theme continues with
the 10th pick in the 2020 NASBL Draft as the Chows select its
shortstop of the future in Bo Bichette.
Everyone hits home runs in MLB today – and Bo Bichette is no exception
with 11 long balls in 212 plate appearances.
What sets Bichette aside is his ability to hit the gaps as well. Bichette had 18 doubles while compiling a
.311/.358/.571 slash line in his first taste of MLB. This type of offensive production from a 21-year-old
shortstop is crazy. Did I mention yet
that this is an insanely deep draft?
11) Mt.
Pirongia Kiwis (from SHA) – Eloy Jimenez (LF/RF)
The Times just mentioned that everyone hits homers
in MLB today. While this is true – not
everyone has “light-tower power” and not everyone hits 31 in their first 122
games as a major leaguer. There is a
reason that Eloy Jimenez was a consensus top five prospect the past two years
in MLB. The ball just sounds different
coming off Eloy’s bat. There are some
guys whose power would drop if Rawlings gets its act together regarding the allowable
tolerance levels of elasticity in the baseballs utilized in MLB. Eloy Jimenez is not one of them. The fact that Eloy is a true “left fielder” on
the defensive spectrum is the only reason that Mike Dickson gets the opportunity
to take him here at #11.
12) Illinois
Chow Chows (from ECN) – Brandon Woodruff (SP)
While there is little doubt that the Chows have
greatly accelerated its rebuild in this draft, Brad Sherlag has little in the
way of young starting pitching. While I
am sure that Joey Lucchesi is a fine person and a reasonably good major league
pitcher, nothing about Joey Lucchesi says “Staff Ace”. The Chows need to address its pitching needs at
some point and have no 2nd round pick. With Paddack and Soroka off the board, the
Chows get a great consolation prize in Brandon Woodruff. Any pitcher that hit a postseason home run
against Clayton Kershaw is a gamer. Woodruff
is also the guy chosen to start the National League wild card game for MLB’s
Brewers- and shut down the eventual champs.
GAMER. Woodruff is not just a
gamer – he has great stuff. Woodruff has
a 10.6 K/9IP in the regular season and a 12.7 K/9IP across two postseasons. Woodruff was a MLB all-star in 2019 before an
oblique injury limited him to only 4 second half starts. Without the oblique issue, there is no way he
is still here at #12.
13) Grundy
County Grizzlies – John Means (SP)
Clearly, the Grizz’ offense is championship
caliber. Clearly, the Grizz’ pitching
staff is not championship caliber. The
Grizz need a pitcher. It is this type of
deductive reasoning that keeps people coming back for the annual Springfield
Times Mock Draft! John Means was pretty
much unheralded coming into his rookie season in MLB at the age of 26. That didn’t stop Means from putting together a
season in which he pitched to a 3.60 ERA across 31 games (27 starts), was a MLB
all-star, and was runner up in the American League Rookie of the Year
balloting. Even more impressive than all
of those, Means went a Steve Carlton-esque 12-11 for a Baltimore Orioles team
that went 54-108 on the MLB season. Ace
of the Orioles staff is not a high bar to clear, but anyone sleeping on a
rookie that somehow won double digit games for the Orioles and compiled 4.6 WAR
could be missing out on a star pitcher.
14) Lake
Champlain Cannibals – Tommy Edman (2B/3B/OF)
It is no coincidence that the St. Louis Cardinals
run to the 2019 MLB playoffs pretty much coincided with the promotion of Tommy
Edman to the majors. Edman was worth a
robust 3.8 WAR across his 349 plate appearances. He hits well, he fields multiple positions
well, he runs well. Edman will be in the
middle of everything for the Cannibals as they win another 112 games or so
during the regular season (much to the chagrin of the Springfield Isotopes who
once again look third best in a division of juggernauts).
15) Pocono
Chin Music (from VFS) – Bryan Reynolds (OF)
Reynolds is a young, switch hitting who slashed .314/.377/.503
across 134 games and 546 plate appearances.
A former 2nd rounder out of Vanderbilt, Reynolds never really
landed on the prospect radar. That is
surprising, considering that Reynolds always showed on base skills coupled with
good speed throughout college and the minors.
MLB’s Pirates brought him up and plugged him in the 2 hole late in
April, and Reynolds never looked back – finishing 7th in MLB’s
National League in hitting and 4th in rookie of the year balloting.
16) Phoenix
Pony Express – (from GRK) – Luis Arraez (2B/3B/SS/LF)
In a day and age when striking out 150 times is the
norm from an everyday player, Luis Arraez struck out only 29 times on his way
to slashing .334/.399/.439 in 366 plate appearances as a 22-year-old rookie in
MLB. There were only two players in ALL
OF MLB who had more walks than strikeouts in 2019. One was Alex Bregman. Luis Arraez was the other one. If he would have had qualified, Arraez would
have finished second in all of baseball in batting average. This is no fluke - Arraez was a career .331
hitter in the minors with a .385 OBP as well.
Arraez also plays all over the field.
Unfortunately, this appears to be more of an attempt to hide Arraez defensively than anything else. With a better glove, Arraez wouldn’t be here
at #16.
No comments:
Post a Comment