2016 NASBL Preview - Outlaw Josey Wales: Stuck in the Middle?
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| Cruz hopes to bash OJW to the playoffs |
Outlaw Josey Wales
Average Record Last 3 Years: 82-80
Notable Draft Picks: 1st Rd, 3B Maikel Franco, he can flash a little leather and wield a big stick. His true long term NASBL value will be realized if his parent MLB team resists the temptation to move him across the diamond to 1B. 2nd Rd, Jaime Garcia, LHP, Garcia will always be a huge health risk, and he is not someone to count on. But he has great stuff, and if he can take the mound consistently for the next few years he could be one of the better pitchers in NASBL.
Best Player: Nelson Cruz, RF. He edges out fellow corner OF J.D. Martinez on the basis of his consistent, and growing HR output. He has 45 HR, 110 RBI potential, which would automatically make him an MVP candidate. If OJW falters out the gate, while not likely, Cruz's age and production make him perfect trade bait should GM Mark Hildebrandt chose to go in that direction.
OJW's biggest challenge will be to choose the path between middle of the pack relevance and rebuilding. That's not to say they can't make the playoffs, but the odds are stacked against them with their tough Taste Great competition. Should Outlaw choose to be a seller, those future assets would pair well with this year's draft haul of four picks in the first two rounds.
The Lineup
As we'll note with pretty much every team, this is just a rough outline of what could be the best lineup at the disposal of the manager.
1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
2. Maikel Franco, 3B
3. Nelson Cruz, RF
4. J.D. Martinez, LF
5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
6. Albert Pujols, DH
7. Elvis Andrus, SS
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| The Blur could excel in his 'double leadoff'' role |
9. Billy Hamilton, CF
Pedroia and Franco provide valuable table setters, albeit at only half season's production for a potent 3-4-5 trio that averages 37 HRs a man. After that, things get dicey with each of the 6-9 hitters having identifiable holes in their games.
The bench has some intriguing pieces in Matt Kemp, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto. The options to fill out the other half the schedule at 2B in Pedroia's absence are replacement level. The bench contains some value, but likely not enough to help push OJW over the top.
This will be a defensively average team, though made better if Hildebrandt can stomach Hamilton's .563 OPS to allow him to anchor the OF with his speed and arm.
The Rotation
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
2. Anthony Desclafani, RHP
3. Julio Teheran, RHP
4. Jaime Garcia, LHP
5. Tim Hudson, RHP
Carrasco is the present cream of the crop and things look very bright going forward IF Teheran return sto form, Desclafani's maturation continues on an upward path and Garcia can avoid the injury bug for once.
Hudson will share the #5/swing spot with Jake Peavy with the hopes that their veteran knowledge proves valuable to this staff as it faces a key make it or break it phase.
The Bullpen
CL Francisco Rodriguez
Setup vs R Casey Fien
Setup vs L Anthony Bastardo
K-Rod continues to defy age and should be in line for around 35 saves; he has no weaknesses and can shut down batters from each side of the plate or just sit them down with his more than a K per inning power.
OJW's pitching coach has a lot of options with this deep in bodies pen. The Outlaws will carry 15 pitchers, 10 of which can work out of the pen. This creates an enviable quantity over quality situation and provides Hildebrandt with an almost endless supply of late inning match up options. If he can channel his inner La Russa, not the crane kick guy, the potential to steal a handful of wins is there for the taking.
The Outlook
Outlaw can definitely contend this year, the key question is for how long? However the best long term strategy may to sell off some aging assets while they still have value (Cruz, Kemp, Pujols, A-Gone, perhaps even Petey), make some hay again in the draft next year and wait for that pitching staff to realize its potential.
They are hamstrung by getting only half-seasons out of the 2B and 3B spots. That is another area that is ripe for improvement next year. But, this is a very tough spot to expect OJW to come close to last season's 98 wins. Heck, 88 would be impressive with this roster and the tough competition it will face.
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