Thursday, March 10, 2016

2016 NASBL Preview - Lake Champlain Cannibals Load up for Another Playoff Run

Ace Clayton Kershaw - 56-25 in the last three years
Kershaw hunting for his first Cy
Spring training is well underway, so what better time to start running through our team-by-team previews? 

Lake Champlain Cannibals

Average Record Last 3 Years: 88-74

Notable Draft Picks: 1st Rd, CF Joc Pederson, he can hit it far, but LCC will need him to hit it more often to payoff long term. 2nd Rd, Roberto Osuna, LCC grabbed a top tier closer midway through the second round - his future depends on how the parent Jays plan on using him; facing competition for the closer role could push him to the rotation, where many experts thing his high ceiling future lies anyway.

Best Player: Clayton Kershaw. The former 1st round pick lefty is already far and away the career LCC wins leader with 109. Can this be the year when he nets his first Cy Young Award? Can he shed his playoff failure label? The 2016 fate of LCC lies in the answers to these questions.

This is shaping up as a normal season for the Cannibals. They can, and always have been able to rake with the best of 'em, but can they field and do they have the pitching depth to get across the finish line?

Will they have enough to topple the two-time defending pennant winner Ed Couch New Potatoes, not to mention traditional powers Leigh Valley and Springfield and the resurgent Canyon County Cannons in the ultra-competitive Taste Great? Let's take a look.

The Lineup

As we'll note with pretty much every team, this is just a rough outline of what could be the best lineup at the disposal of manager Steve Beard. "Regular" lineups aren't really a thing in NASBL and perhaps even less so with a platoon whiz Beard at the helm penciling in lineups.

1. Mookie Betts, CF
2. Joe Panik, 2B 
Captain Troy shows the way
3. Justin Turner, 3B
4. Freedie Freeman, 1B
5. Pedro Alvarez, DH
6. Colby Rasmus, LF
7. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
8. Brian McCann, C
9. Joc Pederson, RF

Look at the depth here. Tulo 7th, McCann 8th? That's incredible. However, the youngsters at the top of the order are just too good not to give those extra at bats to every game. And having Pederson swatting the occasional homer in the 9 hole is hardly a handicap.

The team lacks a true power threat, but is full of guys who will clear the fences 15+ times.

The bench is loaded, many teams would kill to slot Christian Yelich or Jason Kipnis in their everyday lineup and Chris Carter and Mike Napoli provide plenty of catch-up-quick power.

The defense is OK, certainly not top tier NASBL but definitely better than past versions of the Elk's Lodge Beer League Softball Team Beard used to run out there. On the bright side, again, the Cannibals will have no issues scoring runs.

On the other hand ...

The Rotation

1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2. Shelby Miller, RHP
3. Mark Buehrle, LHP
4. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
5. J.A. Hap, LHP

Ever the contrarian, GM Beard has loaded up with a rotation of lefties, a fetishist's collection, that Kershaw aside, won't scare anyone.

Compounding matters, Shelby Miller is miscast in the #2 role leaving Beard no choice but to try to use some Commissioner magic to produce an LCC schedule full of "Kershaw and four days of rain."

We'd predict that Beard could spot start some of his low IP starters vs. lineups that struggle against righties, but he would need to have righties at the ready. Instead, to the 'rescue' come more lefties in the form of Drew Pomeranz and Travis Wood.

So unless the entire league falls under a Can't Hit LHP spell, Beard will need to have a regular quick hook. Speaking of ...

The Bullpen

CL Roberto Osuna
Setup vs R Joakim Soria
Setup vs L Hunter Strickland
Swing Starters/Inning Eaters Wood & Pomeranz

The big 3 of Osuna, Soria and Strickland can get any lineup out, but behind them the depth is questionable.

Another true 6th/7th inning guy would be a valuable addition.

The Outlook

If you squint strongly, isn't there enough here to justify a division championship? The offense is plenty potent and bullpen has talent, but will the rotation be the team's anchor?

Plainly put, if Beard stands pat, another mid- to upper-80s win team that gets a lot of 8-6 Ws and more than their share of 10-5 Ls awaits the Lake Champlain faithful.

But, BUT, we predict Beard will not, no, cannot stand pat.

For this year's version of the Lake Champlain Cannibals to realize their full potential Beard must move a bat or two (Yelich and an extra 2B are the obvious candidates) and/or trade some high picks for some rotational depth behind Kershaw. If that happens, anything is possible for this team.

Absent that, LCC fans will have to begin to wonder how many more years of Kershaw and Tulo's primes can be wasted away with near misses before time runs out? That question, and Steve's answer to it, will define 2016 for the Cannibals.



3 comments:

DFW said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
DFW said...

Looks like socialism is headed to LCC. 4 lefties top off by CK!

Iron Pig Press said...

Socialism is already there! Bernie is from Vermont....