Knights' Offensive Woes Continue Under Eddy

(New York Daily Mirror - August 30, 2010)

(After a long hiatus, the Mirror looks in on the Knights, now under the able stewardship of Matt Eddy.)

New York - Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. (The more things change, the more they are the same.)

Alphonse Karr, Les Guêpes, January 1849, Ch. vi

There was almost an audible sense of relief among Knights fans earlier this year when beleaguered Mitch Pak, battered and bloodied from years of trying to steer the Knights into consistent contention, instead surrendered the GM reins following the sale of the Knights franchise by the Pak family after 9 seasons. Then a new, warm feeling of confidence comforted the Knights' faithful when Matt Eddy, a tough, experienced baseball man of considerable repute, took control and vowed to clean house and reverse the fortunes of this star-crossed franchise, finally banishing once and for all time the dark cloud of incompetence inherited by the Knights from their progenitors, the North Celtic Druids.

Even the players themselves were optimistic about the change in direction. 3b Michael Young, who was the longtime Knights captain under the Pak regime, remarked to Steve Somers of WFAN radio in New York that there was a "new feeling" around the ballclub, that finally "someone will be getting us pointed in the right direction."

But as recent world history has demonstrated, regime change alone, without proper and significant adjustment and correction in strategy, often fails to have the desired result. That which was old is new agan. And that, unfortunately, appears to be what Knights fans are feeling as the first of September approaches with the Knights once again playing out the string in the 2010 NASBL season.

When Mitch Pak resigned after Block 1 of the season, the Knights were floundering in last place in the LF Central, 14 games under .500 at 16-30. Today, 90 games later, the Knights are still 14 games under .500 at 61-75 and far removed from playoff contention. The team's record since Pak's resignation is 45-45.

Its the same old story: inconsistency and underperformance. The Knights can hit but they can't score runs in a timely manner, the same problem that plagued Pak's clubs since 2007. They can pitch but not well enough to make up for the lack of offense and contend. Consider the following.

The Knights are hitting .271 as a team, good for second in the LF, just one point behind Pocono and ahead of playoff contenders Troy, Seattle, Miami and Grundy County, the latter two of which are steaming toward division titles. They're second in the LF in doubles and runs scored, third in hits, second in RBI and tops in triples with 33 and slugging at .455. All good stats. Yet, despite these gaudy numbers, the Knights are far below .500 while the Grizzlies are 19 games over and hold a 7 1/2 game lead in the division.

Other critical numbers tell a more sobering story. The Knights are 7th in the LF in on-base percentage at .327 and have drawn the third-fewest walks with 383 (the Grizzlies, by contrast, have drawn 529 walks; the Cannibals have drawn 588 walks and have a .361 OBP). If you aren't going to hit fo high average, and the Knights don't do so particularly well (just three regulars hitting over .300, led by Matt Kemp at .319), you need to manufacture runs by getting on base in other ways, including the good old base on balls.

The team's lack of a true home run threat has resulted in a paltry 16 intentional walks while the team's old bugaboo, strikeouts, continues to be a problem years after the trades of Jim Thome and Preston Wilson; the Knights are one of just six teams that has struck out over 1000 times. Each of the other five teams, however, are in playoff contention.

One could also argue that some of the team's better offensive players are being underutilized. Vladimir Guerrero is hitting .300 but has just 307 at bats; neither Jorge Cantu nor Alberto Callaspo nor Juan Rivera, all of whom were expected to be significant offensive contributors in 2010, have even reached 300 at bats, although all three players have made the most of their opportunities. Rivera has 20 homers, 54 RBI, a .281 average, a .941 OPS and a .605 slugging percentage in only 228 at bats; Cantu is at .291 with 7 homers and 31 RBI; Callaspo, who was expected to be the everyday second baseman, is hitting .296 with a .798 OPS, the best numbers for any Knights second baseman since the days of Mark Loretta.

A look at the top players' individual numbers is also revealing. Knights fans can recall our post-mortem of the Knights' 2009 season, where this page decried the lack of actual run production by the top players relative to the offense numbers provided. This trend appears to have continued into 2010. Outfielder Jason Kubel smashed 30 homers and 21 doubles through the end of Block 3 but only had 68 runs batted in. 1b Adam LaRoche, finally having the fine season Mitch Pak always envisioned, was hitting .304 with 22 homers and 29 doubles, but only 72 RBI. Michael Young, continuing his good year-bad year pattern of recent seasons, is hitting .295 with 19 homers and 23 doubles but only 56 RBI. Not terrible numbers in MLB, but in the high-octane world of the NASBL, they just are not good enough.

Clearly, and like in the Pak era, many of the players are having good seasons statistically, but the team's other offensive deficiencies are keeping the team from winning more games.

Then there is the pitching, another frustrating aspect of the late-Pak era. For the most part, the pitching has been pretty good, although the keystone combo of starters - Josh Johnson, Jon Lester and Matt Cain - have not been able to win many games, again as a direct result of an inability to score runs in a timely manner. Cain, who had fallen into Pak's doghouse earlier this year, is just 12-12 despite a sparkling 3.74 ERA, 164 strikeouts and 1.32 WHP. Josh Johnson, acquired by the Knights this season with the team's overall #1 pick, is just 11-10 with a 4.17 ERA, despite having issued just 64 walks against 214 strikeouts. Johnson is a prime candidate to break the Knights' single season strikeout record of 238, held jointly by Mike Mussina and Doug Davis. Jon Lester, the team's #1 selection in 2009, has taken a step back from his very good rookie season but his 11-14, 4.87 ERA is acceptable from a #3 starter.

The Knights' two other starters held over from 2009, Gavin Floyd (9-12, 6.82) and Joe Saunders (6-13, 5.30) have been awful and are probably both gone after this season.

The bullpen, a Knights strong point in recent years, has been up and down. Chad Qualls has had a decent season as the team's closer, posting 13 saves and a 2.63 ERA; Tim Byrdak, as expected, has had trouble with walks but otherwise is having a fine year; the ageless Darren Oliver continues to get it done, posting a 4-0 record and a 2.11 ERA; and rookie Tyler Clippard has a 3.29 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 27.1 innings. On the other side of the fence, Phil Coke (6.55 ERA) has been a terrible disappointment, Jeremy Affeldt (5-5, 4.84 ERA) has been inconsistent in middle relief, Octavio Dotel has been brutal and newcomer Aaron Cook has the highest ERA on the team at 8.44.

Bill Parcells famously said that you are what your record says you are. If that's so, the Knights are a bad team, and have played mediocre ball at best over the past 90 games. In other years, a familiar feeling of despair would set in around now, with fans again agonizing on why this club is not better an how it could be made better. But with Matt Eddy sure to clean house over the coming offseason and with major moves most likely to come, Knights fans can still be hopeful that better years finally lie ahead.