Christmas Day Write Up!

Troy, NY:  So I attended my first Arizona First Pitch with a couple of friends back in November.  After meeting a number of great writers for Baseball HQ and other cool people, watching some great Arizona Fall League baseball games and generally enjoying the heck out of myself, even meet and able to hang out with Scoresheet Baseball creator and all around good guy, Jeff Barton; I came to realize something I subconsciously already knew in the first place.  A good amount of the fantasy baseball analysis does not correlate well to my two favorite fantasy baseball games, Strat-o-matic and Scoresheet baseball.

  Why is that?  That's much more of a difficult question.  I have always been more of a fan of a simulation type fantasy game which Strat and scoresheet excel at, while a large majority or the other types of leagues count stats.  As a fantasy football player, I do understand the draw of watching your players build their values on a day to day basis instead of a weekly basis, but it just doesn't do it for me for baseball.  The biggest thing to me is that any player ranking list that does not include Clayton Kershaw in the top 5 overall players (and some where he would not even be drafted in the first round of a league), does not only not make sense, it just doesn't seem realistic.

  But enough about the "other" types of fantasy baseball, why do I like strat and scoresheet?  Strat-o-matic baseball is an amazing game that I learned as child rolling dice and looking up results on some cards, and it wasn't until I was a teenager when I began to realize the mathematical way that someone could analyze the cards (or results) and figure out the best players to pick and use.  Then, as I was introduced to scoresheet baseball, I realized the fun in trying to predict how the players were going to do and try to pick and use those players that would give the best result.  That, the prediction process I mean, in itself is so much fun to try to figure out and completely maddening at the same time.  Continuing Strat leagues have this great value, but drop off because once the season is complete you are then able to calculate each possible result mathematically.  Is that worse than trying to predict how each of your players are going to to on a week to week or yearly basis?  No, it's just different. 

   I could go on, but I'm starting to ramble and get away from what I wanted to do with this post.  I don't know how much anyone in the league reads books like Baseball Forecaster, Baseball Prospectus or my personal favorite John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book; but I thought it would be fun to try my hand at writing up a few players.  So here you go; some write ups and predictions of a few players on my team:

Madison Bumgarner:  A former top prospect with already 3 and a half years under his belt who over the past three years has seen his H/9 go from 8.9, 7.9 then 6.5.  At 23, primed for a big breakout in 2014, or something in between 2012 and 2013.  Either way that's pretty good. Expectation: 18 wins, 2.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP

B.J. Upton: The most over-rated player in the history of baseball, and has been on a steady decline since his one great season in 2007.  Has good speed but it doesn't do any good when you do not get on-base.  At what point do teams finally just give up an move on from this guy?  The Haymakers picked him up cheap looking for some future value...I expect them to be disappointed.  Expectation:  .235-20 homers-30 stolen bases, with an under .300 on-base average.

The Future of the Haymakers?

Troy, NY:  Making it to the championship series two of the last three years and not winning has left a dark cloud over the small city of Troy.  The Haymakers came to town in 2007 and have been fairly irrelevant in the NASBL until 2010.  A flurry of trades brought some big names and some major excitement to the area.  The past three seasons, the Haymakers have won at least 90 games thanks to a number of dominating performances.  But does it matter if you do not win it all?  Probably not.  No one remembers or cares about the teams that don't make the finish.  Heck this reporter can not even remember the other NASBL World Series losers of past seasons not from Troy.
   So can the fans cry "Wait 'til next year!"?....well, actually no.  With down years from key players and no picks in the first five rounds of the upcoming draft; the fans will have to look elsewhere to see a contending team.  Burlington (or the Lake Champlain area) is about a 3 hour drive to the north where you can see the Cannibals and Fighting Sioux while the Chin Music play about three hours to the south.  It's about time to gas up and go.

   The fans that actually decide to stick around to watch the games played in Troy next season will have the benefit of watching Edwin Encarnacion in a lineup of part-timers and wash-ups.  Recent trades have not helped this.  The acquisition of B.J. Upton, a player that Troy management has never liked in the first place, is going to make the team hard to watch.  The reason for picking up Upton?  "We got him for nothing, and there is no way he can be this bad going forward."  That sounds eerily similar to what was said when the Haymakers picked up Andrew Jones years ago.  Just what did Andrew Jones do for the Haymakers in 2008?  Only hit .182 with a .626 OPS.  Lets not forget he was part of one of the major trade blunders for Troy. He was out of the league for two straight years after that and his career, save for two seasons as a bat off the bench, was pretty much over.
  The small bright spot on the team are the two starters, Madison Bumgarner and recent pickup Kris Medlen and closer Greg Holland.  Team management has been a fan of Holland for a while now, and he's primed to take over the closer role next season.  Bumgarner and Medlen will be a decent one/two punch at the top of the rotation, but the rest rotation is looking like a barren wasteland of has-beens and never-was'.

  Mudville has nothing on the Troy Haymakers.

2014 NASBL Base Draft Order

With the close of the 2013 NASBL World Series, the last piece of the 2014 base draft order puzzle is in place.

The 2014 base draft order (all rounds except rounds 3 and 4, which are governed by FA Money) is as follows:

1.  SBU
2.  ILL
3.  SPL
4.  GRK
5.  PCM
6.  CCC
7.  VFS
8.  OJW
9.  SHA
10. LCC
11. DFW
12. SPR
13. GCG
14. ENP
15. TRY
16. LVI

There were situations where teams were tied in terms of base winning percentage.  The tie-breakers were as follows:

-DFW gets pick #11 over SPR due to less overusage points.
-VFS gets pick #7 over OJW due to winning a coin-toss tie-breaker.

Trades lead Spurs in 2013

At the start of the 2013 no one would have thought the Spurs would be a playoff team.  After BK-1 they were playing .500 baseball.  We were making plans on who would we try and trade and get ahead start on 2014.  Thanks to a 19-8 BK-2 home record the Spurs found themselves in the play off hunt.  Before the start of BK-3 the Spurs made a couple of trades that turned out to be one of the most successful trades the Spurs have ever made.  Looking for relief help and another Closer to replace the struggling Rafael Betancourt who had a record of 1-4, with 14 saves with an era over 4 and had given up 7 home runs in 30 inning.   In a deal that brought Wilton Lopez over from PCM, Lopez went 2-2 with 14 saves & a 1.77 era.  Then in a deal that brought 3 new faces from VFS Garrent Jones in 38 games batted .312ba 7-2b 7-hr 28-rbi.  Willie Bloomquist batted .333ba in 49 games and Joe Smith went 3-1 with 2saves & a 1.98 era.  

"We couldn't have asked more of the players we picked up in trades in 2013" stated the skipper of DFW Red Robbins.  "There is no doubt if we didn't make those moves we wouldn't have made the play  offs.  We are hoping we can sign Joe Smith and Willie Bloomquist to deals before the start of 2014"!

Outlaw Career Stolen Base Leaders

Twenty-three years of Outlaw All-Time stolen base leaders, from 1991 to 2013 including the predecessor NASBL Cleveland Indians and San Diego Padres:

1. 613, Kenny Lofton, 1993 - 2001
2. 395, Omar Vizquel, 1996-2011
3. 149, Elvis Andrus, 2010-2013
4. 115, Willy Taveras, 2006-2008
5. 111, Alfonso Soriano, 2004-2008

Elvis has a loooong way to go to get to the top.

REMATCH!! or Iron Pigs and Haymakers part deux

Troy, NY:  It was back in early January 2011 when the Haymakers made their big splash and added their impact bat.  Let by Hamilton's .366 batting average and 118 RBI's, Troy made their first appearance in the NASBL World Series.  Facing juggernaut Iron Pigs, lead by "King" Albert Pujols who blasted 48 homers and drove in 125 and three starters who won at least 15 games each, the Haymakers could only muster 2 wins and vowed to return to glory.
    In 2011 Hamilton had some help in Jose Bautista and Corey Hart, who both hit over 35 homers and drove in over 100 runs each.  Other players such as Billy Butler (.323 - 13 - 71) and David Murphy (.325 - 11 - 51) were great peices of the puzzle while Brett Gardner lead off for Troy, scoring over 100 runs and stealing 55 bases.  Now two years later and still lead by Josh Hamilton, the Haymakers are looking to return to glory and finally take the coveted NASBL crown.  What is different about these 2013 Haymakers?  Hamilton did not hit .366 this season, but 100 points less.  He did hit 49 homeruns and drive in 129. Hamilton's help is not as good this season, but arguably a little deeper.  Edwin Encarnacion did nicely (.243 - 38 - 93) and Alan Craig (.297 - 22 - 72) supported Hamilton's power while part timers Corey Hart (.351 - 10 - 38) and Casper Wells (.290 - 10 - 28) got a number of timely hits to help pick up some wins.  Dexter Fowler has taken over the leadoff slot with a .376 on-base average.
  But the biggest difference between the two seasons has been the mid-year pickups.  In 2011, Troy picked up Francisco Liriano (14-3 2.35 ERA), but that was really it.  In 2013 the Haymakers picked up ace Kris Medlen (6-0, 1.09 ERA), but also got relief pitcher Sean Marshall (3-0, 0.90 ERA), starter John Niese (7-3, 4.08 ERA).  Troy also improved in the field and lineup getting Chase Headley (.251 - 9 - 28) and Aaron Hill (.301 - 7 - 31).  Both were major improvements over what was considered to be fan favorites at their positions.
 Now Troy is back to battle the Pujols (.287 - 38 - 123) led Iron Pigs, but this time Billy Butler (.320 - 25-110) and Robinson Cano (.321-31-82) will be assisting Albert and the league best ERA to mash down the Haymakers It should be an epic battle.

Looking for a wild card?  It might just be Josh Johnson, who will be at his third straight NASBL championship.  In 2011 Josh Johnson went 19-5 for the NASBL champs; while in 2012 Johnson was hurt for most of the season he was strong in the playoffs for champion Slatington.  In 2013 Johnson did not have the same success (11-14 5.26 ERA), but will he be making an appearance in the 2013 World Series?  We'll have to wait and see.

Strat Twitter preview: Part Tre

#10.) TORONTO: Jose Reyes gets a 3 at SS in his first season for the Jays

#9.) TAMPA BAY: Rookie of the Year Wil Myers receives a 4B3 in CF and a 3B2 in RF

#8) DETROIT: Three different position ratings for José Iglesias. SS: 1, 3B: 2 and 2B: 3

#7) LOS ANGELES (AL): AL MVP runner-up Mike Trout earns a 1 fielding rating in CF and LF

#6) MILWAUKEE: Jean Segura receives a 2 fielding rating for his play at SS.

#5) LOS ANGELES (NL): Rookie phenom Yasiel Puig gets a rating at all three OF LF: 3, CF: 4B3, RF: 2

#4) OAKLAND: Josh Donaldson gets a 2 at 3B and a 4 at 1B/SS (1 inn. played at each)

#3.) CLEVELAND: Jason Kipnis gets a 2 fielding rating at 2B

#2.) ST. LOUIS: All-Star Matt Carpenter is rated at four positions... a 3 at 2B/3B, 4 at 1B, 5 in RF

#1.) CINCINNATI: The most requested player was Shin-Soo Choo. Choo gets a 4B3 fielding rating in CF and a 3 in LF

For our draft: Scooter Gennett(3) , José Iglesias(1/2), Jean Segura(2), Yasiel Puig(2),  Josh Donaldson (2) and Wil Myers(3) stock goes up!!!

Jedd Gyorko(4/4) drops a bit...