NASBL Early & Simulated Results

Well now we have some early results.  [This is like listening to the news during a gubernatorial election before the polls are closed.]  Early stats of actual played games have Ed Couch, Troy, Lehigh Valley, and Grundy County jumping into division leads.   How good are these indicators?  I think – WONDERFUL!

But I will take it a step further:  When we received the playball file from “Fear the Steve Beard,” I played 3 simulated seasons using just the Block 1 playing instructions.  Results were interesting.  Two teams, Lehigh Valley and Slatington, repeated their results in each of the 3 season.  The fourteen other teams showed individual and inconsistent patterns with varied results.

The Taste Great (“TG”) East division title was won two of 3 times by EdCouch.  TG East results overall had EdCouch (272-214 and .560 winning percentage) edging out Lake Champlain (269-217 .553) by 3 games.  LCC won one division title.  Springfield tallied a near .500 record at (242-244 .498) and the Chow Chows took a few lumps.  Illinois collected two 100+ losing (simulated) seasons and an overall (193-293 .397) simulated record.

The Less Filling (LF) South Division is the Wackiest Ship in the Army, or the submarine with the most holes to fill. Vermont won the most games in 3 replays (246-240 .506) but came in 2^nd in the division race all 3 simulations.  Pocono, with 1 division title and (242-244 .498) record edged two time division winner Grundy County (240-246 .494) by 2 games.  VFS, PCM, and GCG each only topped the .500 mark once.  It would appear that a trade or a dice roll can change this division title race.  Did I hear rumors that Springfield wants to move to LF South? 

Oh yeah, 2012 NASBL Champion, the Slatington Bulldogs, were one of the most consistent teams losing a whopping total of 355 games in 486 tries.  It appears that Adam Leickel can name the first pick in the 2014 draft any time after finishing 3 simulated seasons with a 131-355 record and .269 winning percentage.

The LF West Division had better results and look to carry the division flag into the championship round.  All four teams look strong and three teams played above the .500 high water mark.  Seattle with a (219-267 .450) record will need to make a few trades to improve their chances against the top 3 teams, according to my computer.   Those 3 teams are Dallas Fort Worth (267-219 .549), Shawnee (261-225), and Troy (249-237 .512).  DFW edged SHA by 6 wins and 1 simulated title (2 to 1).  All three teams had at least one simulated 90+ win season in 3 tries.

Well, that brings us to TG South Division.  Johnny Miller’s Roadkill had a respectable winning percentage of .490 overall, (238-248 record) but will have to make a few adjustments to get in to the hunt with its 3 division mates.  Canyon County took 3^rd place in division simulations with a .508 winning percentage and 247-239 record.  The Outlaw Josey Wales did not steal a simulated division title from the Iron Pigs despite its second best overall record of (279-208 .573).  So that brings us to 3 time simulated division champion Leigh Valley (293-193) and the only team with a winning percentage higher that 60% (.603).  The Iron Pigs look good and were the only team with 100+ wins in a simulated season (106-56). 

So – now you know.  Know what?  You know my simulated results and early season results and with that knowledge you can choose to change the path your team is taking.  You can add a good hitter or pitcher or trade one.  This information is as good as a sunny day on the beach, and is unlikely to repeat as that sunny day on the beach if the beach is in Minneapolis.  League results aren’t necessarily going to end this way.  Lets see how the trade market warms up and how the dice roll.

 

Part 2 Simulated Results of Player Performance to come.

Grundy County Block 1 Highlights

The GRIZ lead the Less Filling’s Central Division, for now.  The GRIZ usually get off to a good start because they play 30+ home games during the first block and then their record tends to deteriorate as the road tends to eat them up. 

 

This year is not much different, at this point.   GRIZ jumped out to 18-13 home record that should keep them at or above the .500 mark for the first block.  Pitching has worked better than even Coach Howard planned. 

 

1.        Bartolo Colon is 5-0 in seven starts.  Coach Howard loved Colon for Grand Canyon Natural Field with the park’s 1-2 BP homerun rating squeezing Colons 8 BP chances vs LHB down to 1.6 in 108 dice roll chances.  Colon has 3.8 outrights against LHB, but that is probably the worst thing on Colon’s card.    Colon is tough on RHB, and his overall OB is balanced under 22 chances per side.  Colon has a home ERA of 2.18, he has given up 2 homeruns in 53 innings and only walked 7.  His home whip is just over 1.0. 

2.       Josh Beckett has upstaged Colon by throwing 3 shutouts.  3 complete games without giving up a run in 6 starts.  Coach Howard would have bet against Beckett collecting one shutout this year.  Beckett’s home ERA was under 1.00 for the longest time and sits at the end of Block 1 at 1.03.  Beckett has given up 29 hits in 44 IP and has a 1.0 WHIP at home.  This was better than Coach Howard could imagine.  Beckett’s 2012  MLB 4.65 ERA was not good and his Boston ERA of 5.23 in 21 starts is horrible.  Coach Howard stated, we figured Beckett to be a launching pad.  Beckett, like Colon, will probably not see much road action.

3.       JJ Putz, the GRIZ closer has 6 saves in 7 games, a 1.04 ERA and a WHIP under 1.0 over his 8.2 IP.   JJ has done what we have asked of him, said Coach Howard.  Coach wants to save JJ’s innings for the road, so he has given opportunities to other firemen in the GRIZ pen who have also recorded a total of 3 saves.

4.       Team ERA for 31 home games is 2.64.  Besides Beckett’s masterpieces two team efforts led to shutouts, and Kevin Correia, the last player taken in the 2013 draft by the GRIZ has one.  Correia’s role is a spot starter to give the team’s top staters extra rest at home so they will have more road availability.  Correia will eat up innings as the teams’ last road pitching alternative. 

 

Coach Howard knows his 2 BP chances in 20 erases a lot of the team’s power, but it works both ways.  It helps our pitchers, he said.  GRIZ batters have suffered at home, however.  The highlights are:

 

1.        Alex Gordon’s .339 batting average. (Danny Espinosa is second on the team in the batting leaders race at .278).

2.       Miguel Cabrera’s 14 RBIs.

3.       Opponents have hit 20 homeruns to the GRIZ 14 Home blasts.

4.       Team batting average at home is a dismal .240.

 

Fielding has been good.  GRIZ error totals 16 in 31 home games.  This has to be an improvement over previous GRIZ teams during the Dan Uggla and Jhonny Peralta years.  Colon leads the team in one more statistic – 5 errors.

 

So went Block 1.  On to Block 2.

EdCouch gets his first taste of NASBL regular season...

EdCouch general manager Ed Killmer has studied past league champions and knows the competition is stiff to be a league champion. He noticed a trend of good teams trading off future draft picks to strengthen their teams for a title run, and today Ken Anderson of Troy sent out an email looking to strengthen his team for a title run.

EdCouch made quite a few off season trades and drafted with both current and future success in mind, though the team hopes to contend for a title this year, they know that other teams like Troy will be investing in their current teams in an attempt to separate from the pack. EdCouch has designed it's roster for post season play, but acknowledges that the challenge to be on top at the end of the season will be difficult.

The question remains can EdCouch contend this year without making any moves? Or will the team hold steady in hopes to compete each year? In the next several months the answer to these questions will be answered, in the meantime it is time to play ball!

The Secret To Success?

Troy, NY:  Through the first 30 games of the season the Haymakers stand at robust 21-9.  While everyone thought the revamped team would contend, no one thought they would come out of the gate firing on all cylinders like they have been.  Granted it is still very early, but if this keeps up Troy should have no problem making the playoffs for a third straight year.

So what is the biggest reason for the teams success so far and continued success this season?  Let's take a look:

Is it newcomer Scott Diamond?  Probably not. He has been unbeatable so far this season; currently with a 6-0 record and a 1.06 ERA...but let's be honest, no one would be surprised if Scott goes worse than .500 the rest of the season.

Is it fellow newcomer Allen Craig?  Craig has been solid, hitting .279 with 5 homeruns and 10 RBI's in 24 games; but that's mainly replacement level in a league like this.

If I had to pick, it would have to be resident superstar Josh Hamilton.  Through 30 games, in which Josh has only played 25, he has hit 12 homeruns and has 34 RBI's.  That's a pace of 65 homeruns and 184 RBI's over a full season.  If that doesn't sound like MVP numbers, then I don't know what it would take.  Josh was looking to rebound from a somewhat pedestrian season and pick up his second LF MVP award.  It has been helpful that Troy has been putting a lot of players on base, a .340 clip as a team to help drive up that RBI total.

Will it last for a full season?  I know Haymaker fans are hopeful, but you never know how a season will go.

In other news:  The Haymakers will be holding a controversial Bil League Chew night for kids the last Sunday of this month in honor of Josh Hamilton's success so far this season.

Pigs edge Sioux 3-1 behind Cobb and a salad of tough relievers. Hanson tough in the loss.

Strat-O-Matic Report

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BOXSCORE: 2013 Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs At 2013 Vermont Fighting Sio 5/31/2013
 
  Iron Pigs          AB  R  H RBI AVG     Fighting Sioux     AB  R  H RBI AVG
  M.Brantley CF       4  1  2  0 .226     C.Utley 2B          3  0  2  0 .258  
  J.Werth RF          4  1  0  0 .296     B.Posey C           4  0  1  0 .311  
  R.Cano 2B           4  0  2  2 .380     M.Holliday LF       3  0  0  0 .200  
  B.Butler DH         4  0  1  0 .279     G.Jones DH          3  0  0  0 .339  
  A.Pujols 1B         4  0  1  0 .252   C-J.Castro PH         1  0  0  0 .333  
  E.Chavez 3B         3  0  0  0 .214     A.Jones CF          4  1  2  0 .231  
  I.Desmond SS        3  1  0  0 .326     C.Pena 1B           3  0  1  1 .233  
  Y.Cespedes LF       4  0  2  1 .239   D-K.Frandsen PH       0  0  0  0 .471  
  J.Jaso C            3  0  0  0 .345     J.Keppinger 3B      4  0  1  0 .356  
                                          G.Parra RF          3  0  0  0 .211  
                                          J.Hardy SS          2  0  1  0 .193  
                                        A-B.Lahair PH         1  0  0  0 .150  
                                        B-W.Bloomquist SS     0  0  0  0 .200  
                     -- -- -- ---                            -- -- -- ---      
         Totals      33  3  8  3                 Totals      31  1  8  1
 
A-Pinch Hit For Hardy In 8th Inning
B-Subbed Defensively (SS) For Lahair In 9th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Jones In 9th Inning
D-Pinch Hit For Pena In 9th Inning
 
Iron Pigs....... 2 1 0  0 0 0  0 0 0  -  3  8  1
Fighting Sioux.. 0 0 0  0 0 0  1 0 0  -  1  8  1
 
Iron Pigs (21-7)         IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA
A.Cobb WIN(1-0)           6       8   1   0   1   4   0   0.00
F.Rodney HOLD(2nd)        1 1/3   0   0   0   1   1   0   0.54
H.Street SAVE(8th)        1 2/3   0   0   0   0   3   0   0.00
Totals                    9       8   1   0   2   8   0
 
Fighting Sioux (15-12)   IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA
T.Hanson LOSS(1-2)        8 1/3   8   3   2   4   8   0   2.57
F.Morales                 0 1/3   0   0   0   1   0   0   3.52
J.Burton                  0 1/3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0.00
Totals                    9       8   3   2   5   8   0
 
ATTENDANCE- 46,030 DATE- Sunday, May 31st 2013 TIME- Day 
T- 2:46
LEFT ON BASE- Iron Pigs: 8  Fighting Sioux: 6
DOUBLE PLAYS- Iron Pigs: 3  Fighting Sioux: 1
ERRORS- A.Cobb, M.Holliday
DOUBLES- R.Cano(9th), C.Utley(1st)
STOLEN BASES- I.Desmond-2(4th), Y.Cespedes(2nd), J.Jaso(1st)
CAUGHT STEALING- M.Brantley
WALKS- M.Brantley, J.Werth, E.Chavez, I.Desmond, J.Jaso, C.Utley, M.Holliday
HIT BY PITCH- K.Frandsen
STRIKE OUTS- M.Brantley, J.Werth-2, R.Cano, E.Chavez, I.Desmond-2, Y.Cespedes,
             B.Posey-2, M.Holliday, J.Castro, A.Jones-2, G.Parra, B.Lahair
GIDP- A.Pujols, G.Jones, C.Pena, J.Keppinger
RLISP 2-out- E.Chavez, M.Brantley-2, J.Jaso, J.Werth
 
Robinson Cano had 2 base hits and 2 RBI as the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs bested
the Vermont Fighting Sioux 3 to 1 at Fighting Sioux Field.
 
Alex Cobb(1-0) gave a fine effort for Lehigh Valley.  He allowed 8 hits and 1
walk in 6 innings.  Lehigh Valley and Vermont each finished the afternoon
with 8 hits.  
 
Cobb got help from Huston Street who earned his 8th save. Tommy Hanson(1-2)
took the loss.  'I was a little good, a little bad and a little ugly.' said
Cobb, 'I was just giving us a chance to win.'

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Gee outlasts Strasburg, Pigs. Hurlers combine for 24 Ks, Sioux win going away 6-2.

Strat-O-Matic Report

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BOXSCORE: 2013 Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs At 2013 Vermont Fighting Sio 5/30/2013
 
  Iron Pigs          AB  R  H RBI AVG     Fighting Sioux     AB  R  H RBI AVG
  M.Brantley CF       5  1  1  0 .213     C.Utley 2B          3  1  0  0 .237  
  J.Werth RF          4  0  2  0 .313     B.Posey C           4  1  1  1 .313  
  R.Cano 2B           4  0  0  0 .373     M.Holliday LF       4  1  0  0 .206  
  B.Butler DH         4  0  2  1 .280   C-D.Span RF           0  0  0  0 .348  
  A.Pujols 1B         4  0  1  0 .252     G.Jones DH          4  1  1  1 .358  
  E.Chavez 3B         4  0  1  0 .231     A.Jones CF          3  2  1  1 .221  
A-E.Young Jr PR       0  0  0  0 .348     C.Pena 1B           4  0  1  3 .228  
B-J.Pacheco 3B        0  0  0  0 .304     J.Keppinger 3B      4  0  1  0 .362  
  I.Desmond SS        3  0  1  0 .337     G.Parra RF,LF       3  0  1  0 .222  
  Y.Cespedes LF       4  0  0  0 .222     J.Hardy SS          2  0  0  0 .186  
  J.Jaso C            2  1  1  0 .385                                          
                     -- -- -- ---                            -- -- -- ---      
         Totals      34  2  9  1                 Totals      31  6  6  6
 
A-Pinch Ran For Chavez In 8th Inning
B-Subbed Defensively (3B) For Young Jr In 8th Inning
C-Subbed Defensively (RF) For Holliday In 9th Inning
 
Iron Pigs....... 0 0 0  0 2 0  0 0 0  -  2  9  1
Fighting Sioux.. 0 2 0  0 0 0  0 4    -  6  6  2
 
Iron Pigs (20-7)         IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA
S.Strasburg LOSS(2-1)     7 1/3   4   3   3   2  12   2   2.48
F.Rodney                  0 2/3   2   3   0   1   2   0   0.59
Totals                    8       6   6   3   3  14   2
 
Fighting Sioux (15-11)   IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA
D.Gee WIN(3-1)            9       9   2   2   3  10   0   5.04
Totals                    9       9   2   2   3  10   0
 
ATTENDANCE- 45,358 DATE- Saturday, May 30th 2013 TIME- Night 
T- 2:58
LEFT ON BASE- Iron Pigs: 8  Fighting Sioux: 4
DOUBLE PLAYS- Iron Pigs: 0  Fighting Sioux: 2
ERRORS- R.Cano, G.Parra, D.Gee
DOUBLES- C.Pena(4th)
HOME RUNS- G.Jones(6th), A.Jones(3rd)
STOLEN BASES- C.Utley(2nd)
CAUGHT STEALING- I.Desmond
WALKS- I.Desmond, J.Jaso-2, C.Utley, A.Jones, J.Hardy
STRIKE OUTS- J.Werth, R.Cano, A.Pujols-2, E.Chavez-2, I.Desmond, Y.Cespedes-2,
             J.Jaso, C.Utley-2, B.Posey-2, M.Holliday-2, G.Jones-3,
             J.Keppinger-2, G.Parra-2, J.Hardy
GIDP- M.Brantley, A.Pujols
2-out RBI- B.Butler, C.Pena-3
RLISP 2-out- B.Butler-2, C.Utley, A.Jones-2, J.Keppinger
 
Dillon Gee retired 10 batters on strikeouts as the Vermont Fighting Sioux
defeated the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs by the score of 6 to 2 at Fighting Sioux
Field.
 
Gee(3-1) contributed a very nicely pitched game.  He didn't allow much, just 9
hits and 3 walks in 9 innings.  Lehigh Valley had 9 hits in the game while
Vermont had 6, but Vermont had the more timely hits.  
 
The losing pitcher was Stephen Strasburg(2-1).  He struck out 12 batters in 7
and 1/3 innings despite losing the game.  Kevin Burns was upset after the
game.  'I don't like to complain but did you see that umpires strike zone?',
he said.  'Maybe they ought to start calling the strike zone the way it's
printed in the rule book.'

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Crows win the extra base hit battle 7-0, game 6-3.

Strat-O-Matic Report

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BOXSCORE: 2013 Shawnee Crows At 2013 Vermont Fighting Sioux         5/20/2013
 
  Crows              AB  R  H RBI AVG     Fighting Sioux     AB  R  H RBI AVG
  D.Dejesus CF        5  0  0  0 .120     J.Keppinger 3B      5  1  3  0 .369  
  D.Jeter SS          3  1  3  1 .316     D.Span RF           3  2  1  0 .348  
A-B.Ryan SS           1  0  0  0 .400   D-B.Lahair PH         1  0  0  0 .158  
  R.Braun LF          5  0  0  0 .205     B.Posey C           5  0  3  1 .316  
  A.Dirks RF          4  1  2  0 .286     M.Holliday DH       4  0  1  0 .214  
  C.Ruiz C            3  0  2  2 .250     C.Pena 1B           3  0  1  2 .226  
  T.Colvin 1B         4  2  2  0 .350     A.Jones CF          4  0  1  0 .218  
  D.Nava DH           4  1  2  2 .263     G.Parra LF          4  0  0  0 .216  
  D.Murphy 2B         4  1  2  1 .286     M.Ellis 2B          4  0  1  0 .250  
B-J.McDonald 2B       0  0  0  0 .238     J.Hardy SS          4  0  0  0 .190  
  S.Rolen 3B          4  0  0  0 .176                                          
C-A.Callaspo 3B       0  0  0  0 .100                                          
                     -- -- -- ---                            -- -- -- ---      
         Totals      37  6 13  6                 Totals      37  3 11  3
 
A-Subbed Defensively (SS) For Jeter In 8th Inning
B-Subbed Defensively (2B) For Murphy In 8th Inning
C-Subbed Defensively (3B) For Rolen In 8th Inning
D-Pinch Hit For Span In 9th Inning
 
Crows........... 0 0 1  2 0 2  1 0 0  -  6 13  0
Fighting Sioux.. 2 0 1  0 0 0  0 0 0  -  3 11  0
 
Crows (4-6)              IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA
A.Sanchez WIN(1-1)        6      10   3   3   3   6   0   7.53
B.Parnell HOLD(2nd)       2       0   0   0   0   1   0   3.00
J.Johnson SAVE(4th)       1       1   0   0   0   1   0   3.86
Totals                    9      11   3   3   3   8   0
 
Fighting Sioux (14-11)   IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA
K.Kendrick LOSS(0-1)      6 2/3  11   6   6   1   6   0   8.10
J.Burton                  0 1/3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0.00
E.Stults                  1 2/3   1   0   0   0   1   0   2.08
J.Smith                   0 1/3   0   0   0   0   0   0   4.50
Totals                    9      13   6   6   1   7   0
 
ATTENDANCE- 26,245 DATE- Wednesday, May 20th 2013 TIME- Day 
T- 3:25
LEFT ON BASE- Crows: 6  Fighting Sioux:10
DOUBLE PLAYS- Crows: 0  Fighting Sioux: 1
DOUBLES- C.Ruiz(2nd), T.Colvin(3rd), D.Nava-2(3rd), D.Murphy-2(4th)
TRIPLES- A.Dirks(1st)
WALKS- D.Jeter, D.Span, M.Holliday, C.Pena
HIT BY PITCH- C.Ruiz
STRIKE OUTS- D.Dejesus-3, R.Braun-3, C.Ruiz, J.Keppinger, D.Span-2, B.Lahair,
             M.Holliday, G.Parra, M.Ellis-2
2-out RBI- D.Jeter, D.Nava, D.Murphy, C.Ruiz
RLISP 2-out- A.Jones, G.Parra-3, S.Rolen-2, B.Posey
WEB GEMS- Top 7th: Buster Posey blocked the plate, saving a run!
 
Daniel Nava hit 2 doubles and had 2 RBI as the Shawnee Crows bested the
Vermont Fighting Sioux 6 to 3 at Fighting Sioux Field.
 
In the 6th inning Shawnee scored 2 runs.  Shawnee finished with 13 hits in the
victory.  Anibal Sanchez(1-1) picked up the victory, allowing 3 runs in 6
innings. Jim Johnson earned his 4th save.  Kyle Kendrick(0-1) suffered the
loss.  
 

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