NASBL Early & Simulated Results

Well now we have some early results.  [This is like listening to the news during a gubernatorial election before the polls are closed.]  Early stats of actual played games have Ed Couch, Troy, Lehigh Valley, and Grundy County jumping into division leads.   How good are these indicators?  I think – WONDERFUL!

But I will take it a step further:  When we received the playball file from “Fear the Steve Beard,” I played 3 simulated seasons using just the Block 1 playing instructions.  Results were interesting.  Two teams, Lehigh Valley and Slatington, repeated their results in each of the 3 season.  The fourteen other teams showed individual and inconsistent patterns with varied results.

The Taste Great (“TG”) East division title was won two of 3 times by EdCouch.  TG East results overall had EdCouch (272-214 and .560 winning percentage) edging out Lake Champlain (269-217 .553) by 3 games.  LCC won one division title.  Springfield tallied a near .500 record at (242-244 .498) and the Chow Chows took a few lumps.  Illinois collected two 100+ losing (simulated) seasons and an overall (193-293 .397) simulated record.

The Less Filling (LF) South Division is the Wackiest Ship in the Army, or the submarine with the most holes to fill. Vermont won the most games in 3 replays (246-240 .506) but came in 2^nd in the division race all 3 simulations.  Pocono, with 1 division title and (242-244 .498) record edged two time division winner Grundy County (240-246 .494) by 2 games.  VFS, PCM, and GCG each only topped the .500 mark once.  It would appear that a trade or a dice roll can change this division title race.  Did I hear rumors that Springfield wants to move to LF South? 

Oh yeah, 2012 NASBL Champion, the Slatington Bulldogs, were one of the most consistent teams losing a whopping total of 355 games in 486 tries.  It appears that Adam Leickel can name the first pick in the 2014 draft any time after finishing 3 simulated seasons with a 131-355 record and .269 winning percentage.

The LF West Division had better results and look to carry the division flag into the championship round.  All four teams look strong and three teams played above the .500 high water mark.  Seattle with a (219-267 .450) record will need to make a few trades to improve their chances against the top 3 teams, according to my computer.   Those 3 teams are Dallas Fort Worth (267-219 .549), Shawnee (261-225), and Troy (249-237 .512).  DFW edged SHA by 6 wins and 1 simulated title (2 to 1).  All three teams had at least one simulated 90+ win season in 3 tries.

Well, that brings us to TG South Division.  Johnny Miller’s Roadkill had a respectable winning percentage of .490 overall, (238-248 record) but will have to make a few adjustments to get in to the hunt with its 3 division mates.  Canyon County took 3^rd place in division simulations with a .508 winning percentage and 247-239 record.  The Outlaw Josey Wales did not steal a simulated division title from the Iron Pigs despite its second best overall record of (279-208 .573).  So that brings us to 3 time simulated division champion Leigh Valley (293-193) and the only team with a winning percentage higher that 60% (.603).  The Iron Pigs look good and were the only team with 100+ wins in a simulated season (106-56). 

So – now you know.  Know what?  You know my simulated results and early season results and with that knowledge you can choose to change the path your team is taking.  You can add a good hitter or pitcher or trade one.  This information is as good as a sunny day on the beach, and is unlikely to repeat as that sunny day on the beach if the beach is in Minneapolis.  League results aren’t necessarily going to end this way.  Lets see how the trade market warms up and how the dice roll.

 

Part 2 Simulated Results of Player Performance to come.