Springfield (AP) – What a difference a year makes! The days of yore where the Slatington Bulldogs’ faced a conundrum of who to pick first between Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis seems like a decade ago vs. 365 days ago.
This was truly a season like no other in MLB. While often a NASBL team must make a decision
on the future of its franchise on a “small” sample size of 75-100 innings
pitched or 200 plate appearances, these same decisions are being made this year
based on 27-36 innings pitched and 72 plate appearances – AKA a hot April or
September.
In addition, young pitchers were handled with kid gloves in MLB this
season more than ever before. There may be
pitchers drafted in the first round this year that have not seen a lineup three
times through– with starter ratings of 4-5 innings. Care to guess how many batters faced young
fire-baller Tristan McKenzie three times in a game? The answer is 6. Ke’Bryan Hayes tore it up in 85 at bats. Is the youngster Hayes a good comp to Shane
Spencer, his dad Charlie, or Scott Rolen?
Who knows?
The answer is always up in the air - but this year it feels more akin to a
NASBL GM playing craps and hoping to hit a difficult point. Good luck – I hope everyone hits their “4”
the hard way. For the second straight year
the Slatington Bulldogs are ON THE CLOCK!
1) Slatington Bulldogs – Luis Robert (CF)
There are three really
good young centerfielders in this draft, but only one has the ability to truly
change the game on both sides of the ball.
It is extremely rare for a 22 year old to win a gold glove. In the last 30 years, Robert is only the third
rookie to win a gold glove award at any position outside of catcher. The other two to win in their rookie seasons
were two guys named Ichiro and Nolan Arenado.
Adam Lieckel will gladly take those comps.
There are some concerns
about the bat. After catching fire early
in the season, Robert limped to the finish by slashing an ugly .136/.237/.137 with
only one extra base hit in the last 23 games of the season. There is no sugar-coating that those are
historically terrible numbers. However,
the season is not only 23 games long. Even
with that terrible month, Robert still produced 31 homers/95 runs scored/89 RBI
when pro-rated for a full season. Luis
Robert is a star and even if he ONLY turns out to be a Vernon Wells/Torri
Hunter/Andruw Jones type player, I believe the Bulldogs would be happy with its
pick.
2) Phoenix Pony Express – Zac Gallen (SP)
The fantastic selection
of Fernando Tatis Jr. with last year’s 2nd overall pick should lead
to a reversal of fortune for the Pony Express in the near term. However, the current iteration of the Pony
Express appears to lack the horses required of a championship worthy rotation
(see what I did there?).
There are so many ways that
Joe Howard could go with this pick. I
would attest that you could throw Zac Gallen, Sixto Sanchez, Corbin Burnes,
Dinelson Lamet, Jesús Luzardo, Tony Gonsolin, Triston McKenzie and Dustin May
in a hat and you would be happy with whichever slip of paper you would
pull. When in doubt, go with the guy
with the best track record.
Gallen barely missed
the cut-off for NASBL rookies for last year’s draft. As such, Gallen has amassed a 2.78 ERA, 1.17
WHIP, and 178 strikeouts over a robust 152 inning/27 start sample size. Gallen does not have the prospect pedigree of
many of the other mentioned, but his success on the field led to a 9th
place finish in the NL Cy Young balloting in his first full (albeit truncated)
season.
3) Slatington Bulldogs (from ILL) – Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B)
I know what you are
saying – didn’t Adam Leickel take a 3rd baseman first overall last
year? Technically that is true, however after
a year of watching Vladito stumble around third base, MLB’s Toronto Blue Jays
decided a move across the diamond was warranted and he now calls first base
home to the tune of a nifty “5e14” rating.
This leaves the Bulldogs without a 3rd sacker.
There just happens to
be a gold-glove caliber rookie third baseman on the board who punished MLB
pitching in a way that few have ever seen –albeit in a very limited sample
size. Get ready for some truly
video-game like numbers, couched again by the fact that the following occurred
in a 24 game sample size. Hayes’ slash
line was a silly .376/.442/.682. Just
because it is fun, let’s see what a pro-rated
162 game season would have looked like for Ke’Bryan. Are you ready? I’m not sure you are. Hayes would have had 216 hits, 114 runs
scored, 47 doubles, 13 triples, and 33 homers.
These offensive numbers are from a guy who’s calling card in the minors
was his defense. As a result, Hayes
generated 1.9 WAR in his 24 games of action – prorated to 12.8 WAR in a 162
game season. I have no further words.
4) Shawnee Crows – Devin Williams (RP)
Three picks in and the
two MLB rookies of the year are still on the board. The Crows would be well served to change that
by selecting the NL rookie of the year – Devin Williams. A relief pitcher at #4 in the draft? That is crazy some would say. The Springfield Times would usually
agree.
It is without doubt
that the most dominant pitcher in all of baseball when he was on a mound in MLB
last year was Devin Williams. This is
not even in dispute. The numbers are
silly. In 27 innings, Devin Williams
allowed 8 hits, 6 walks, 1 earned run, and struck out 53. His ERA was 0.33. This is not a misprint.
Williams’ 84 MPH
change-up is THE best pitch in all of baseball.
Batters only managed two singles in 62 at bats versus his change and
struck out an insane 41 times against it.
There is a reason Williams finished seventh in the Cy Young balloting
and even received some down ballot MVP votes as a rookie middle reliever. The
Crows look like they already have a full lineup and rotation that is near
playoff ready. Having 75 innings of
Devin Williams and unlimited playoff usage really does provide the most value
here to the Crows.
5) Mt. Pirongia Kiwis – Alec Bohm (3B/1B)
Alec Bohm is a
professional hitter - something that is not often said of a rookie. In today’s day and age where batting average
is no longer en vogue, there is something to be said of a guy who hit .338 over
his first 44 major league games. Bohm
isn’t just empty batting average though, as his nifty .400 OBP would impress
even the most callous sabremetric mind.
Bohm has the prospect
pedigree to match the production and finished second to Devin Williams in the
National League Rookie of the Year balloting.
Bohm is not known for his glove based on early results in his major
league career, but Bohm’s glove will play enough to slot in as the Kiwis’ first
baseman for the next decade.
6) Slatington Bulldogs (from OJW) – Sixto Sanchez (SP)
How does Adam Lieckel
seem to have half the first round picks every year? That is a question for another article. The sixth pick in the first round marks the
Bulldogs’ third selection this year.
After going offense for
his first two selections, the Bulldogs will pivot and take one of the plethora
of young starting pitching options in the draft. My analogy to picking out of a hat still
applies here, however based on recent history Leickel skews towards youth in
his selections.
Sixto Sanchez is the
youngest of the bunch - making his debut last year at the ripe age of 22 years
and 24 days old. Sanchez absolutely dazzled
in his seven regular season starts. Sanchez
also had two postseason starts – which were a mixed bag, but showed the Marlins
absolute faith in their young hurler.
7) Dallas Ft. Worth Spurs – Will Smith (C)
Red Robbins yet again finds
himself in the enviable position of having a team with few holes entering the
NASBL draft. One area in which Red finds
himself slightly lacking is behind the dish.
There just happens to be one of the best young offensive catchers to
come around in a number of years available here in the form of Will Smith. Smith almost qualified for last year’s NASBL
draft, so the sample size is larger than most in this year’s draft. In his first 333 MLB plate appearances, Smith
has slashed .268/.363/.574 – AS A CATCHER!
He was even better in 2020 posting a ridiculous .289/.401/.579 slash
line – AS A CATCHER!
How is Smith available
with this pick? That is a fair question -
and he very well may go higher. The one
knock on Smith to date appears to be in his defense. MLB’s Dodgers utilized Will Smith as its
designated hitter in four of the six games they played in MLB’s World
Series. While this is quite the
testament to Smith’s bat, it is also quite the testament to the Dodgers’ faith
in Smith to call/frame and do everything else needed to be a true two-way
catcher. It should be noted that Smith
carries a “-1” arm into NASBL, so any real world defensive concerns may not be
an issue at all for whoever drafts Smith in NASBL.
8) Mt. Pirongia Kiwis (from GRK) – Corbin Burnes (SP/RP)
Corbin Burnes has
actually been kicking around MLB since 2018, however he did not meet NASBL’s
minimum innings requirements as either a dominant reliever in 2018 (2.61 ERA),
nor as a disastrous starter/reliever in 2019 (8.82 ERA).
In 2020, MLB’s
Milwaukee Brewers threw Burnes for three games in the pen before reintroducing
him as starter. Burnes was a revelation
for the Brew Crew – posting a 2.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 13.3 K/9 and 0.2 HR/9 for the season. Burnes was even better as a starter than a
reliever, with a 4-1 record and a 1.72 ERA in his nine times toeing the bump in
inning 1. It was a strong enough season
to earn Burnes a sixth place finish in the NL’s Cy Young balloting in 2020 and
Mike Dickson is glad to take him here.
9) Honolulu Hawaiians – Dustin May (SP/RP)
Welcome back to the
league Trader Stan. With his first selection
back, Mr. Pietruska could do much worse than add a building block like Dustin
May. The Gingergaard may not have a
defined role for MLB’s LA Dodgers, but one thing that is not in dispute is the
pure stuff that Big Red employs in whatever role he fills. On a scouting scale of 80, his 97.9 MPH
sinker is a 70, his 93.6 MPH cutter is a 80, his 99.1 MPH fastball is a 70, his
86.8 MPH curveball is a 70, and his unparalleled flow of red hair is a 90.
May’s stuff has
translated to fantastic production as well, posting a 2.52 ERA during 2020 in
12 games/10 starts over 56 innings and only allowing a 1.09 WHIP. May was a little homer prone in 2020, but
that is truly picking nits and it should be noted that May limited homers
during his 34 inning debut in 2019. A
great pick for Stan, but my advice for Dustin May would be to “rent and not
buy” during his stay in Honolulu. Stan
is a man who is known to turn over his roster on occasion.
10) Springfield Isotopes - Jesús Luzardo (SP/RP)
The Topes find
themselves with only Max Scherzer and Mike Minor holding down the fort in the
starting rotation. It is VERY apparent
that young starting pitching is a need for the Topes. The Topes don’t tend to shy away from
southpaw starters – so Jesús Luzardo appears right in Doug Sherlag’s wheelhouse
with this pick.
Luzardo made his debut
as a 21 year old in September 2019 as one of the top pitching prospects in MLB and
served to bolster the Athletics’ bullpen in the stretch run and in the
playoffs. Luzardo stepped into a starter’s
role in 2020 and there were flashes of brilliance and flashes of
not-so-brilliance. Four of the twelve
times Luzardo pitched, he left the game without giving up a run. Other times…..not so much. As a whole, Luzardo put up a very solid 4.12
ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.0K/9IP during the regular season.
Slightly concerning is
that Luzardo also had two clunker starts in the postseason, posting an ERA in
excess of 8 in a little over 7 innings of work.
However, the talent is clearly there for the Topes to get a top of the
rotation starter with this pick.
11) Grundy County Grizzlies – Kyle Tucker (LF/RF)
The Times usually takes
a look at a squad and identifies their needs to aid in the mock draft
selection. The Grizzlies literally need
nothing outside of some relief arms to win a NASBL championship. They are stacked at every position. If Devin Williams is still here, he is a
no-brainer for the Grizz. However, in
this mock, Williams is long gone. Due to
Aaron Judge’s inability to stay on the field, it appears that another corner
outfielder could be beneficial the Grizz.
As such, Jack Howard could do much worse than grab Kyle Tucker with this
pick.
Tucker is extremely
athletic and has been on prospect radars since 2016. Tucker had cups of coffee in MLB in both 2018
(which went very badly) and 2019 (which went very well) before finally securing
a full-time role in 2020 (which also went very well). With a slash line of .268/.325/.512 in 2020,
Tucker has proved that the .439 OPS he posted in 72 plate appearances in 2018
were an anomaly. Tucker’s athleticism
was on full display in 2020 as led the league in triples and over a pro-rated
season, Tucker’s batting line would have completely filled the stat sheet with
33 doubles, 16 triples, 25 homers, 117 RBI’s, 92 runs scored, and 22 stolen
bases. Great pick for the Grizz.
12) EdCouch New Potatoes – Dinelson Lamet (SP)
Dinelson Lamet’s talent
is undeniable. Lamet was a 2nd
round pick of the Pocono Chin Music in the 2018 NASBL Draft based on a season
in which he stuck out 139 batters in 114 innings as a rookie in MLB. Dinelson Lamet’s inability to stay healthy
and on the field is also undeniable.
In the three years since
his rookie season, Lamet has pitched a total of 26 games and 142 innings. A Google search of “Dinelson Lamet injury”
pulled up 90,800 results in 0.45
seconds.
During 2020, Lamet
seemed to turn a corner with his health and finished 4th in the NL
Cy Young voting on the back of his 12 starts of 2.09 ERA ball and racking up of
a silly 93 punch-outs in 69 innings. However,
Lamet finished the year with a right elbow injury that kept him out of action
at the end of 2020 and during the Padres postseason run. Cue the familiar music.
Although Lamet says
that platelet therapy did the trick and he is “100% healthy” heading into 2021,
Ed Kilmer knows what he is getting here - and the talent outweighs the risks
here at #12.
13) Denville Ultras – Kyle Lewis (CF)
MLB’s American League
Rookie of the Year is still on the board.
The Times predicts that will change as Ken Anderson Sr. and the Ultras
select Kyle Lewis with their 1st Round Pick. Lewis was a consistent force for MLB’s
Seattle Mariners throughout the 2020 season.
His .262/.364/.437 slash line over 242 plate appearances led to Lewis
being a unanimous selection for ROY in MLB.
The fact that Lewis hits both sides equally is invaluable this year when
starting pitchers are often rated for 5 innings of endurance and roster spots
are at a premium.
Lewis’ defense may be
better slotted for a corner outfield position - which is the only reason he is
still here at #13. With either Byron
Buxton or Cody Bellinger patrolling center for the Ultras, a corner outfield
spot for Lewis suits Ken Anderson Sr. just fine.
14) Honolulu Hawaiians (from LVI) – Trent Grisham (CF)
Trent Grisham was traded
from the Milwaukee Brewers to the San Diego Padres in MLB in a rare “top
prospect” for “top prospect” swap that saw the Kiwis’ Luis Urias go back to
Milwaukee. It is thought that an extreme
misplay of a ball in MLB’s wild card game that cost the Brewers the victory was
too much for Grisham to overcome and continue his career in Milwaukee. If this truly was the case, it could be the
ultimate example of “small sample size” as Grisham won the gold glove in his
first full season as a centerfielder in MLB with the Friars. Hal determined that Trent was only worthy of
a “2” but the metrics show the gold glove award was well deserved.
Gold glove
centerfielders are worth their weight in a certain precious commodity that I
will not name to avoid using the same adjective twice during the same
sentence. Gold glove centerfielders that
actually can swing the bat, as Grisham did in 2020, are worth even more. On a pro-rated basis, Grisham’s 2020 would
have resulted in a .251/.352/.456 slash line, 115 runs scored, 27 homers, 71
RBI’s and 27 steals. Not too shabby for
a late 1st round pick.
15) Pocono Chin Music –Tony Gonsolin (SP/RP)
The Chin Music has a
championship caliber offense with no real holes – except behind the plate. The Chin Music do not appear to be nearly as
strong on the pitching side – with three solid starters and one good
reliever. Whatever need they address
here is up to Ken Anderson’s whims. Tony
Gonsolin didn’t reach the attention of the prospect prognosticators until he
was 25 and his minor league/major league results were too hard to ignore.
However, since entering
MLB in late 2019, Gonsolin has quietly outpitched most of the league – putting
up a 2.60 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP over 87 innings.
There are some concerns about Gonsolin’s length as a starter. MLB’s Dodgers only allowed Gonsolin to go two
innings or more in one of his three postseason starts. Even if this proves to be true, Gonsolin
would be the Game 1 starter for the Chin Music in the NASBL playoffs and would
more than likely shut down any team for five innings.
16) Lake Champlain Cannibals – Jeimer Candelario (3B/1B)
The Cannibals
championship window remains firmly open in 2021. In Lake Champlain’s division, it typically
takes 110 wins to make the playoffs. As
such, Steve Beard may need to make upgrades that could be considered as “high
rent problems” if he wants to make another run at it this year (which he
should). One such upgrade would be to shift
Justin Turner off of 3rd base and into a DH role for this season.
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