WAR rant....what is this mess?!?

Washington, D.C.: "Hey you know what I read the most unbelievable thing about Tolstoy the other day, did you know the original title for "War and Peace" was "War-What Is It Good For?"

What is WAR good for? I have never been that big on these new age player value statistics. The most advanced I have really ever made it was OPS for hitters and maybe WHIP for pitchers; so I decided to take a look at a few items on baseball-reference.com website to see what I could find out.


First off, let me just say that baseball-reference is probably my most visited site not named Google as it has almost everything you could ever want to know about baseball players from the past and present. I sometimes get lost for at least an hour looking up information in my idle time, and even use it for impromptu tests of baseball knowledge with others.

So I decided to check out WAR or Wins Above Replacement, which baseball-reference defines as such:
"A single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player would add. Scale for a single-season: 8+ MVP quality, 5+ All-star quality, 2+ starter, 0-2 reserve, <0 replacement level"

This seems to make sense on a broad level, right? Here's where the problem lies for me: Paul Konerko is currently ranked #38 in the American League with a 2.0 and his stat line as of this morning was .336/.408/.532; while Brett Lawrie is ranked #8 in the AL at 3.4 with a stat line of .288/.333/.421. How is this possible?

Now I know this WAR calculation takes other things into effect like the position they play, their defense, other players who play at the position; but you mean to tell me that Lawrie is worth more (for this current season only) than Konerko? Konerko's OPS is .940 to Lawrie's .764. Konerko is not the greatest defender at 1B, but he only has one error and how much value do you really put a first base defense? (Let's be honest, no one really wanted Travis Lee on their team. Sorry Phillies fans, you have to admit it.) I'm not a naive old man shaking my fist at progress but there is no way that could be true, right?

There is no doubt that over the long haul Lawrie, a 22 year old third baseman who was ranked a top 50 prospect before coming to the majors, is the player I would rather have...but you cannot convince me that he is more valuable than Konerko this season.

Kershaw Struggles to Overcome Cannibalism

Lake Champlain southpaw Clayton Kershaw is dedicating his 2012 season to overcoming one of the most subtle forms of discrimination in the NABSL today.

Not racism, not agism, not sexism. No. In 2012, Kershaw hopes to overcome Cannibal-ism.

But what does Cannibal-ism mean? Have LCC pitchers been getting cranked on bath salts and painting barbecue sauce on homeless peoples’ faces? Well, no. Not as far as we know, anyway.

According to the Urban Dictionary, Cannibal-ism is the preconception, usually correct, that Lake Champlain Cannibal pitchers totally suck at pitching.

Normally this perception is not a problem, as research shows over 99% of LCC pitchers who have ever taken the mound have indeed sucked. In fact, independent studies show that putting an LCC pitcher near a rubber and a rosin bag is statistically almost as likely to cause sucking as putting Paris Hilton in front of a home movie camera. (Almost.)

However, there have been multiple examples of Cannibal pitchers who have spent an entire season sucking less than Hillary after Monica hit the news.

Multiple in the sense that “2” is multiple, anyway.

The following is the complete and unabridged list of cases of the greatest LCC pitching performances that ever went unrewarded in post-season awards voting (if you ask the Lake Champlain media, these are Clear Cases of Cannibalism):

1. Brendan Donnelly, 2004 (19-6, 3.18, 17 saves). Donnelly led the Tastes Great in wins, and was 7^th in the TG in saves. But he was shut out of both the Cy Young and the Fireman of the Year voting. Donnelly had more wins and a better ERA than eventual Cy Young winner Jason Schmidt of the Georgia Roadkill (16-8. 3.42). And while Fireman of the Year Eric Gagne of the Yorktown Schooners (1-7, 2.72, 37 saves) did have over twice the saves, Donnelly’s edge in the W/L categories (18 more wins, 1 less loss) might have at least brought his name into the conversation. While some feel the Donnelly awards shutout was because he was little more than a marrow-sucking vulture, tallying cheap mid-inning wins on the basis of an awful LCC starting rotation (the team had 77 starts by SPs with season ERAs greater than 5.80) and an extremely powerful LCC lineup (1129 runs scored, 1^st in the league,) Lake Champlain conspiracy theorists have long held with another explanation: Cannibal-ism.

2. Jonathan Sanchez, 2011 (23-5, 3.13). Sanchez led the Tastes Great in wins, struck out 225 hitters (10^th in the TG), and tallied 3 shutouts (4^th in the TG.) But the Cy Young hardware went to Lehigh Valley rookie Clay Buchholz (16-6, 1.77.) While Iron Pig apologists might argue Buchholz deserved to bring home the bacon (due to minor technicalities such as setting a single-season NASBL record for ERA - 1.77, only the 2^nd time in NASBL history a pitcher has finished below 2.00), LCC homers ….errrr…. dispassionate analysts feel the LVI near-sweep of the 2011 awards (ROY and FOY to Buchholz, MVP to Albert Pujols) constitutes a form of imperialism that can only be fought through expressions of democracy such as voting for Sanchez for Cy (even though Sanchez was clearly only the 2^nd best pitcher in the Tastes Great last year.)

So how best to halt the perfidious spread of Cannibal-ism?

Given that quasi-peaceful forms of protest such as last summer’s week-long Occupy Lehigh Movement (where LCC GM Stephen Beard occupied LVI’s kitchen and guest room for nearly a week) have failed to prevent actions such as the fair election of Buchholz, LCC’s Kershaw has opted for an old-school approach popularized by Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh back in the 80’s:

Crash: “Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.” “Oh, hey, and another thing, Meat. You don't know shit, all right? If you wanna make it to the bigs, you'll listen to me. Annie only wants you so she can boss you around, got it? So relax! Let's have some fun out here! This game's fun, OK? Fun goddamnit. And don't hold the ball so hard, OK? It's an egg. Hold it like an egg.”

Outlaw Gets More Power!

Outlaw management has been working the phones since the latter part of Block I in an attempt to improve the team's chances of winning NASBL's short playoff series, and hopefully, World Series.  We found that it's hard to improve on a really good team when you don't have any good expendable prospects and your trading partners think that your draft position will be low.


Management had no trouble zeroing in on our two biggest playoff needs:
1)  A dominant starting pitching card, and
2)  A dominant left-handed bat


Number one proved elusive, as usual in NASBL, seeing that dominant starting pitching cards are usually associated with dominant starting pitchers whose price is higher than a late first-round draft pick.


Need number two isn't much easier to fill given the lack of dominant left-handed bats this year, and the fact that many of them are young and promising, and most of them already reside in the hands of contenders.


Outlaw management was really miffed that their hand-picked Kemp-Napoli-Gonzalez-Pedroia-Ortiz-Beltre-Cruz offensive juggernaut was out-homered and out-scored by Slatington in block I.  Then the Bulldogs had the nerve to add insult to injury by trading for Jose Bautista!


So when Seattle decided to go for a youth movement we jumped right on the chance to negotiate for the one player we had considered the best fit for the Wales playoff run all along:

Outlaw is honored to welcome Lance Berkman, professional hitter extroidanaire, to the Outlaw family.  We gave up a first round draft pick for an aging hitter with health issues, but the Big Puma adds a dominant bat to team up with Adrian Gonzalez and Big Papi Ortiz against any right-handed pitcher that can be thrown at us.


The trade also strengthens Outlaw's right-handed setup role as Steve Cishek's outstanding card was also packaged for underrated Rafael Betancourt, who is on track to provide Seattle one of the more dominant 2013 closer cards.


Outlaw is confident that this is the right trade at the right time for both Seattle and the Wales.


Bring on the playoffs!

Moscoso Just Misses No-Hitter vs. Crows - takes it 8 2/3

Here is the game write-up from the box score: 

Moscoso didn't allow a hit until the 9th inning as the Illinois Chow Chows topped the Shawnee Crows by a score of 3 to 0 at Seventies Stadium. Moscoso(1-2) was virtually untouchable. He didn't allow much, just 1 hit and 3 walks in 9 innings lowering his ERA from 6.87 to 4.61. The right-handed Moscoso lost his no-hit bid when Nyjer Morgan doubled with two outs in the 9th inning. Illinois managed 7 hits in their victory. The loss was charged to R.A. Dickey(4-3). He allowed 2 runs and 6 hits in 6 and 2/3 innings. 'He was moving it around and spotting it very well.' Mike Johnson said. Moscoso pitched a great game. He deserves all the credit.' 

Bautista-gate!

Troy, NY: Haymaker fans made a unified, "Wha, Wha, What?!?" this past week when news surfaced that the slugging Jose Bautista was traded for Edwin Encarnacion and a VFS round 1 pick. "He just didn't fit into our long term plans," said GM Ken Anderson, "We want to build our team around Josh (Hamilton), Pablo (Sandoval) and Madison Bumgarner. We also want to build a long term competitive team and we thought this was the best way to keep that plan in action." Troy fans have been livid, who thought the team was a playoff lock before the trade. Even Bautista himself was quoted in another news source as saying that the Haymaker GM did not have faith in him. "Bautista is a grown man and knows how this game works," said the GM, "He was productive when he was here, and if he is worried about who has faith in him them maybe it was best that he was moved on." There have been other fairly public hints (Here) that Bautista was on the market from as early as January; when news surfaced that he was being shopped. It seemed the GM has had his doubts for some time, maybe he was worried about the personalities of Hamilton and Bautista over the long term. We may never know. Now Troy fans will have to finish out the season without one of the most exciting bats in the game. Jose Bautista, who helped bring the Haymakers their first championship appearance in 2011, was drafted in the 6th round of the 2010 draft. After a season playing part time, a hitch was fixed in his swing and Bautista exploded with 44 homeruns and 123 RBI's in 2011. He was hitting .313 with 15 homeruns and 36 RBI's at the time of the trade.

DFW BK-1 Report

Heading out of Spring Training DFW had high hopes on the direction the team.  Well it didn't take long for reality to set in when the season started.   The Spurs finished BK-1 with a 15-31 record.  The bad news is just what the Spurs dreaded, a sophomore jink by their young guns.  Jason Heyward is batting .230 with 5hr & 11rbi.  Andrew McCutchen & Logan Morrison are hitting under the 'Mendoza Line', at .198 and .168.  McCutchen is leading team with 21r,  22rbi, & 8hr. 

 

Last year staff ace Colby Lewis (14-10, 3.65era),  is 1-7, with a 7.21era.  Tim Stauffer is 1-6, 5.91era, & Dustin Moseley is 0-4, 6.42era have 17 of the team's 31 loses.  The pitching staff is suffering a severe case of 'Gopheritis'.  In 46 games the staff has given up 64 homeruns.  Lewis has given up 14, Stauffer 13, and Jeff Karstens 9.  When asked how long has the staff has had 'Gopheritis', skipper Red Robbins said 'the last 6 years!'

Outlaw Nation Happy with Block I

Outlaw fans and management have no complaints after a successful road-heavy 2012 NASBL block I.  A 9 game division lead, a .654 road winning percentage, out-homering opponents 3-1 at Wreckin' So Field, Justin Masterson's 6-1, 2.48 record, Adrian Beltre's 13 HR, 33 RBI start, Kimbrel and Venter's 14 saves, Adrian Gonzalez's .342 BA and 31 RBI, and NASBL league leading .824 X-percentage and 3.08 ERA are all putting smiles on the Outlaw Pond faithful.

Disappointments are minor.  Matt Kemp's .254 batting average fails to wow, although his 30 runs, 10 HR, 30 RBI and 14 SB are excellent production.  More was expected of Tim Hudson than a 3-3 record, but his 3.90 ERA is solid and suggests some hard-luck, and Alfredo Aceves' 4.15 ERA is a disappointment, but his 3-1 record is good.

Questions remain.  Why hasn't management pulled the string an a trade to bring a big gun playoff weapon to Outlaw?  A strong starting pitcher card or another big left-handed hitting card could help to shorten those unpredictable NASBL playoff series.  The brass does hint that they are still working the phones, but say that improving on the team we already have on the field isn't easy.  

Why hasn't fireballing rookie Craig Kimbrel been handed the closer job outright?  Well, management is very happy with Jonny Venter's 6 out of 7 save conversion and miniscule 1.14 ERA, and this bullpen is easily deep enough to micro-manage duties, so the unconventional lefty-righty closer platoon just might continue.