(New York Daily Mirror - March 10, 2010)
NEW YORK - Never underestimate the power of the press.
A source within the Knights' front office has advised that since the publication of the Mirror's review of the Knights 2010 draft, the front office has received a number of calls from other teams interested in dealing for underachieving righty Matt Cain. Rather than respond to each inquiry individually, GM Mitch Pak issued the following statement this morning.
"Ever since a local tabloid published an article about our draft selections, we've received a number of calls about the availability of one of our starters. I'm here to tell everyone that regardless of the opinion of a tabloid journalist (and I use the word loosely), none of our starting pitchers are now nor will be available for trade at any time during the upcoming season. We think that the Knights have an excellent starting rotation, perhaps the best ever in our history, and it would be foolish for us to trade a starter now."
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
KNIGHTS DRAFT IN REVIEW
( New York Daily Mirror – March 9, 2010)
The Mirror presents its review and analysis of the array of hits, misses and head-scratchers that was the Knights’ 2010 draft.
NEW YORK – Mitch Pak established once again that when it comes to the draft, he is nothing if not unpredictable.
Where conventional wisdom had the Knights addressing their most glaring need in the opening round of the draft – catching – Pak opted instead to strengthen the starting rotation by drafting young fireballing righthander Josh Johnson. While Johnson is unquestionably a solid choice, the starting rotation was one aspect of the club that was not in need of an obvious upgrade, anchored as it was last season by LF Rookie of the Year runner-up Jon Lester (12-10, 3.86 in 2009) and bolstered by veteran lefty Joe Saunders (4.33 ERA, 120 K’s). An anonymous source in the Knights front office (the same source that was leaking inside information from the Knights draft “war room” via Twitter before being mysteriously silenced) suggested that Pak is “very concerned” about Matt Cain’s ability to regain the form he displayed in his 2007 rookie season, when he was 15-10. There is also legitimate worry that Cain, who was the Knights’ #1 pick in 2007, simply does not have the makeup to even be a reliable #2 starter behind Lester, as he yields too many hits. Cain is 34-45 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.61 WHP in his three seasons in New York and his star (not to mention his trade value) has fallen sharply since ’07.
Pak also was allegedly concerned about fan reaction in the event that Adam Wainwright, whom the Knights dealt last year to Georgia in exchange for Vladimir Guerrero, develops as expected into a front-end starter for the rejuvenated Roadkill. Despite the passage of five years, Knights fans are still smarting over the infamous 2005 deal that sent closer Joe Nathan to Georgia for Barry “The Biggest Loser” Zito. Nathan went on to become a perennial All-Star while Zito became a punchline for cheesy late-night comedians.
Despite posting a 29-win improvement over the Disaster of ’08, the Knights were still considered to be an offensively-challenged team in ’09. The team RBI leader, Xavier Nady, had just 75 RBI despite 31 homers and 34 doubles and CF Grady Sizemore had just 73 RBI despite 28 homers and 38 doubles. While having even a faded Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup will probably ease the Knights’ run-scoring woes in ’10 to a degree, the club decided to focus on improving the offensive attack overall. That was the probable reasoning behind the selection of three-year veteran LF Juan Rivera in the early rounds of the draft. Rivera played for LF Central rival Pocono from 2005 through 2007 and posted a career .316 average and .878 OPS. His last season with the Chin Music, 2007, was also his finest, when he batted .338 with 17 homers, 53 RBI and a .921 OPS in 115 games. The knock on Rivera is that he is injury-prone and has never proven his worth over 162 games. That should not be too much of a worry with the Knights, since Rivera will be playing under Mitch Pak’s extensive platoon system. Rivera will probably share playing time in left with returning Knight Jason Kubel (19, 65, .243 in ’09) and, to a lesser degree, Luke Scott (13, 48, .229) and will likely not have more than 400 at bats in ’10.
The Knights were also thinking about offense when they drafted 26 year old second baseman Alberto Callaspo. While not technically a rookie (he had a cup of coffee with the Grizzlies last year, during which he hit .295), Callaspo was taken as insurance in the event that returning veteran Clint Barmes isn’t up to being the full-time second baseman (a real problem area for the Knights since the departure of Mark Loretta some years back). In 106 games at second and short for the Knights last year, Barmes hit a solid .290 with 11 homers and .795 OPS, but he shared the second base job with incumbent Ty Wigginton. The Knights had concerns over Barmes’ inability to effectively hit right-handed pitching and his glove work was suspect as well. Callaspo and Barmes are the only second-basemen on the Knights roster right now, so look for them to compete for the starting job as the spring progresses.
A somewhat intriguing choice by the club was the selection of 41 year old Gary Sheffield in the 12th round. At this stage of his career, Sheffield is mostly a designated hitter, although scouts maintain that he can be useful as a bottom-of-the-depth-chart corner outfielder. While he was out of the league in ’09, Sheffield has had a marvelous 12-year NASBL career, the last six with the Knights’ cross-Hudson rivals, the New Jersey Trash Heap. Sheffield ’s career average of .290 and a career OPS of .909 to go with 280 homers, 922 runs scored and 1,426 hits will likely merit serious Hall of Fame votes down the road. Figure to see Sheffield as a dangerous pinch-hitter and spot starter at both DH and in the outfield. Privately, the Knights are hoping that Sheffield will not be another in a string of faded veterans who come to New York to finish their NASBL careers and give the club almost nothing in the process. (See David Cone in ’03 and Mike Piazza and Jeff Kent in more recent years.)
The Knights suffered a PR disaster last year when Mitch Pak inexplicably failed to draft a second catcher behind Jason Kendall, requiring Kendall to catch all 162 games. The resulting overusage penalty ( Kendall , at age 35, had well over 600 official plate appearances, his highest number since ’02) sent the Knights into poor draft position in the middle rounds. While Mitch Pak was not enamored of any of the available catching talent in the ’10 draft (in a burst of prescience, he reportedly compared Georgia ’s overall #1 pick Matt Wieters to the Knights 2008 mega-bust Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a comparison subsequently validated by Baseball Prospectus), he clearly needed to ensure that the club had enough catching talent for the upcoming season. Choosing quantity over quality, Pak selected Ronny Paulino, Rod Barajas and, in the 13th round, Jason Varitek to don the tools of ignorance for the Knights this year.
Varitek, 38, is the grizzled veteran of the group and will be entering his 11th year in the league. He is regarded primarily as a defensive asset now and will probably be used by the Knights as a late-inning defensive replacement. Knights fans will recall Varitek from his career here that spanned from 2003 through 2006. His best year as a Knight came in 2004, when he hit 29 homers and knocked in 88 runs. Barajas, 34, has only played 276 games over three seasons in the NASBL and owns a career average of .262. His best season came with the Texas Thunderbirds in 2006, when he hit .293 with 18 homers, 58 RBI and an .841 OPS. He is considered to be a fair at best defensive catcher. Paulino, at 28 the baby of the group, last played in the NASBL in 2008, when he split 63 games and 161 at bats between Lehigh Valley and Troy . In 195 career NASBL games, Paulino has a .260 average and .663 OPS. He will most likely start the season second on the catching depth chart. Clearly, the Knights are hoping that this trio will perform respectably as a single unit, since their individual performances will probably be underwhelming, to be charitable.
In the later rounds, the Knights also drafted veteran Julio Lugo, chiefly to back up #1 shortstop Cristian Guzman. Despite an ability to play both infield and outfield positions and some pop in his bat, Lugo has had a very spotty NASBL career. While his resume indicates that he started in the league back in 2001, when he had a solid rookie season with the Canyon Country Cannons (.274, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .726 OPS), he bounced around after that and missed the 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2009 seasons. He last full season in the league came in 2006 with Lake Champlain , when he hit .278 with 3 homers, 59 RBI and 95 runs scored. He last swung a bat in the NASBL in 2007 with Troy , hitting .284.
With their final pick in the draft, the Knights brought back utilityman Ty Wigginton, to back up Michael Young at third. Wigginton has spent the last three of his four NASBL seasons with the Knights, with varying degrees of success. His best season came in 2008, when he led the team with 30 homers and 86 RBI, but his success was lost in the giant mound of cow flop of that 118-loss debacle. The Knights like Wigginton’s hard-nosed makeup but were disappointed at his lackluster ’09 numbers (16 homers, 45 RBI, .253) once he started to share time with Clint Barmes, and eventually cut him. With Young manning the hot corner in ’10 and with second being covered by Barmes and newcomer Alberto Callaspo, Wigginton will probably not see much playing time.
On the pitching side, after drafting Josh Johnson with their first pick, the Knights refocused on rebuilding the middle relief staff, one of the team’s strengths in 2009. The Knights cut five relievers after the ’09 season, retaining only closer Chad Qualls (4-2, 2.86, 9 saves) and middlemen Jeremy Affeldt (1-4, 2.86, 1.23 WHP) and 40 year old lefty longman Darren Oliver (3-2, 3.47, 1.25 WHP). While the Knights are banking on the strength of their rotation, particularly the top three starters, to provide substantial innings in order to take the pressure off the pen, Mitch Pak is not losing his focus on the need for solid middle relief in the event that a starter gets blown out (which is not uncommon in the NASBL).
Thus, coming to the Knights are three new bullpen arms – and one returning friend. Making his NASBL debut this season is 25 year old righty Tyler Clippard. For MLB’s Washington Nationals in 2009, Clippard put up excellent numbers in relief – a 4-2 record with a 2.69 ERA in 41 appearances spanning 60 IP. What really captured the Knights’ attention regarding the rookie was his 1.13 WHP and a miniscule .172 average against. Scouts around the league have indicated that Clippard has a nasty fastball (67 strikeouts in 60 innings) but that he has bouts of wildness (32 walks). Recently retired Knights legend Mike Mussina, now a special roving instructor with the club, will no doubt be working with Clippard as the season draws closer.
Another NASBL rookie joining the Knights pen is righthander Phil Coke. The organization is hoping that the 27 year old hurler will have the same measure of success he did last year with MLB’s New York Yankees, for whom he posted a 4-3 record and 1.07 WHP. The big knock on Coke is that he allows too many home runs and too many extra base hits, as evidenced by his high 4.50 ERA, which was the result of too many earned runs (30) being plated despite not a lot of hits allowed (44).
36 year old Tim Byrdak made his NASBL debut last season with Outlaw and had a good season despite being used sparingly. In 26 appearances with the Wales , spanning 25.1 innings, Byrdak, who has developed a forkball in recent years, was 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.24 WHP. Like Tyler Clippard, Byrdak does not give up a lot of hits but does have a tendency to wildness and the longball.
Finally, the Knights welcome Octavio Dotel back to the organization as part of the middle relief corps. Dotel, 35, was drafted by the Knights in 2009 after having missed the previous three seasons due to various injuries. Dotel rewarded the club with a solid year, striking out 59 in 53 innings while walking just 26 and posting a WHP of 1.37.
In conclusion, this page sees the Knights as fielding an improved team on both sides of the ball. However, the lack of a big-time, 40-homer slugger in the A-Rod or Pujols class will continue to keep this team out of serious playoff contention. If everyone performs up to expectations, we believe the Knights can finish over .500, possibly with 83 wins, in 2010.
The Mirror presents its review and analysis of the array of hits, misses and head-scratchers that was the Knights’ 2010 draft.
NEW YORK – Mitch Pak established once again that when it comes to the draft, he is nothing if not unpredictable.
Where conventional wisdom had the Knights addressing their most glaring need in the opening round of the draft – catching – Pak opted instead to strengthen the starting rotation by drafting young fireballing righthander Josh Johnson. While Johnson is unquestionably a solid choice, the starting rotation was one aspect of the club that was not in need of an obvious upgrade, anchored as it was last season by LF Rookie of the Year runner-up Jon Lester (12-10, 3.86 in 2009) and bolstered by veteran lefty Joe Saunders (4.33 ERA, 120 K’s). An anonymous source in the Knights front office (the same source that was leaking inside information from the Knights draft “war room” via Twitter before being mysteriously silenced) suggested that Pak is “very concerned” about Matt Cain’s ability to regain the form he displayed in his 2007 rookie season, when he was 15-10. There is also legitimate worry that Cain, who was the Knights’ #1 pick in 2007, simply does not have the makeup to even be a reliable #2 starter behind Lester, as he yields too many hits. Cain is 34-45 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.61 WHP in his three seasons in New York and his star (not to mention his trade value) has fallen sharply since ’07.
Pak also was allegedly concerned about fan reaction in the event that Adam Wainwright, whom the Knights dealt last year to Georgia in exchange for Vladimir Guerrero, develops as expected into a front-end starter for the rejuvenated Roadkill. Despite the passage of five years, Knights fans are still smarting over the infamous 2005 deal that sent closer Joe Nathan to Georgia for Barry “The Biggest Loser” Zito. Nathan went on to become a perennial All-Star while Zito became a punchline for cheesy late-night comedians.
Despite posting a 29-win improvement over the Disaster of ’08, the Knights were still considered to be an offensively-challenged team in ’09. The team RBI leader, Xavier Nady, had just 75 RBI despite 31 homers and 34 doubles and CF Grady Sizemore had just 73 RBI despite 28 homers and 38 doubles. While having even a faded Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup will probably ease the Knights’ run-scoring woes in ’10 to a degree, the club decided to focus on improving the offensive attack overall. That was the probable reasoning behind the selection of three-year veteran LF Juan Rivera in the early rounds of the draft. Rivera played for LF Central rival Pocono from 2005 through 2007 and posted a career .316 average and .878 OPS. His last season with the Chin Music, 2007, was also his finest, when he batted .338 with 17 homers, 53 RBI and a .921 OPS in 115 games. The knock on Rivera is that he is injury-prone and has never proven his worth over 162 games. That should not be too much of a worry with the Knights, since Rivera will be playing under Mitch Pak’s extensive platoon system. Rivera will probably share playing time in left with returning Knight Jason Kubel (19, 65, .243 in ’09) and, to a lesser degree, Luke Scott (13, 48, .229) and will likely not have more than 400 at bats in ’10.
The Knights were also thinking about offense when they drafted 26 year old second baseman Alberto Callaspo. While not technically a rookie (he had a cup of coffee with the Grizzlies last year, during which he hit .295), Callaspo was taken as insurance in the event that returning veteran Clint Barmes isn’t up to being the full-time second baseman (a real problem area for the Knights since the departure of Mark Loretta some years back). In 106 games at second and short for the Knights last year, Barmes hit a solid .290 with 11 homers and .795 OPS, but he shared the second base job with incumbent Ty Wigginton. The Knights had concerns over Barmes’ inability to effectively hit right-handed pitching and his glove work was suspect as well. Callaspo and Barmes are the only second-basemen on the Knights roster right now, so look for them to compete for the starting job as the spring progresses.
A somewhat intriguing choice by the club was the selection of 41 year old Gary Sheffield in the 12th round. At this stage of his career, Sheffield is mostly a designated hitter, although scouts maintain that he can be useful as a bottom-of-the-depth-chart corner outfielder. While he was out of the league in ’09, Sheffield has had a marvelous 12-year NASBL career, the last six with the Knights’ cross-Hudson rivals, the New Jersey Trash Heap. Sheffield ’s career average of .290 and a career OPS of .909 to go with 280 homers, 922 runs scored and 1,426 hits will likely merit serious Hall of Fame votes down the road. Figure to see Sheffield as a dangerous pinch-hitter and spot starter at both DH and in the outfield. Privately, the Knights are hoping that Sheffield will not be another in a string of faded veterans who come to New York to finish their NASBL careers and give the club almost nothing in the process. (See David Cone in ’03 and Mike Piazza and Jeff Kent in more recent years.)
The Knights suffered a PR disaster last year when Mitch Pak inexplicably failed to draft a second catcher behind Jason Kendall, requiring Kendall to catch all 162 games. The resulting overusage penalty ( Kendall , at age 35, had well over 600 official plate appearances, his highest number since ’02) sent the Knights into poor draft position in the middle rounds. While Mitch Pak was not enamored of any of the available catching talent in the ’10 draft (in a burst of prescience, he reportedly compared Georgia ’s overall #1 pick Matt Wieters to the Knights 2008 mega-bust Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a comparison subsequently validated by Baseball Prospectus), he clearly needed to ensure that the club had enough catching talent for the upcoming season. Choosing quantity over quality, Pak selected Ronny Paulino, Rod Barajas and, in the 13th round, Jason Varitek to don the tools of ignorance for the Knights this year.
Varitek, 38, is the grizzled veteran of the group and will be entering his 11th year in the league. He is regarded primarily as a defensive asset now and will probably be used by the Knights as a late-inning defensive replacement. Knights fans will recall Varitek from his career here that spanned from 2003 through 2006. His best year as a Knight came in 2004, when he hit 29 homers and knocked in 88 runs. Barajas, 34, has only played 276 games over three seasons in the NASBL and owns a career average of .262. His best season came with the Texas Thunderbirds in 2006, when he hit .293 with 18 homers, 58 RBI and an .841 OPS. He is considered to be a fair at best defensive catcher. Paulino, at 28 the baby of the group, last played in the NASBL in 2008, when he split 63 games and 161 at bats between Lehigh Valley and Troy . In 195 career NASBL games, Paulino has a .260 average and .663 OPS. He will most likely start the season second on the catching depth chart. Clearly, the Knights are hoping that this trio will perform respectably as a single unit, since their individual performances will probably be underwhelming, to be charitable.
In the later rounds, the Knights also drafted veteran Julio Lugo, chiefly to back up #1 shortstop Cristian Guzman. Despite an ability to play both infield and outfield positions and some pop in his bat, Lugo has had a very spotty NASBL career. While his resume indicates that he started in the league back in 2001, when he had a solid rookie season with the Canyon Country Cannons (.274, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .726 OPS), he bounced around after that and missed the 2002, 2004, 2008 and 2009 seasons. He last full season in the league came in 2006 with Lake Champlain , when he hit .278 with 3 homers, 59 RBI and 95 runs scored. He last swung a bat in the NASBL in 2007 with Troy , hitting .284.
With their final pick in the draft, the Knights brought back utilityman Ty Wigginton, to back up Michael Young at third. Wigginton has spent the last three of his four NASBL seasons with the Knights, with varying degrees of success. His best season came in 2008, when he led the team with 30 homers and 86 RBI, but his success was lost in the giant mound of cow flop of that 118-loss debacle. The Knights like Wigginton’s hard-nosed makeup but were disappointed at his lackluster ’09 numbers (16 homers, 45 RBI, .253) once he started to share time with Clint Barmes, and eventually cut him. With Young manning the hot corner in ’10 and with second being covered by Barmes and newcomer Alberto Callaspo, Wigginton will probably not see much playing time.
On the pitching side, after drafting Josh Johnson with their first pick, the Knights refocused on rebuilding the middle relief staff, one of the team’s strengths in 2009. The Knights cut five relievers after the ’09 season, retaining only closer Chad Qualls (4-2, 2.86, 9 saves) and middlemen Jeremy Affeldt (1-4, 2.86, 1.23 WHP) and 40 year old lefty longman Darren Oliver (3-2, 3.47, 1.25 WHP). While the Knights are banking on the strength of their rotation, particularly the top three starters, to provide substantial innings in order to take the pressure off the pen, Mitch Pak is not losing his focus on the need for solid middle relief in the event that a starter gets blown out (which is not uncommon in the NASBL).
Thus, coming to the Knights are three new bullpen arms – and one returning friend. Making his NASBL debut this season is 25 year old righty Tyler Clippard. For MLB’s Washington Nationals in 2009, Clippard put up excellent numbers in relief – a 4-2 record with a 2.69 ERA in 41 appearances spanning 60 IP. What really captured the Knights’ attention regarding the rookie was his 1.13 WHP and a miniscule .172 average against. Scouts around the league have indicated that Clippard has a nasty fastball (67 strikeouts in 60 innings) but that he has bouts of wildness (32 walks). Recently retired Knights legend Mike Mussina, now a special roving instructor with the club, will no doubt be working with Clippard as the season draws closer.
Another NASBL rookie joining the Knights pen is righthander Phil Coke. The organization is hoping that the 27 year old hurler will have the same measure of success he did last year with MLB’s New York Yankees, for whom he posted a 4-3 record and 1.07 WHP. The big knock on Coke is that he allows too many home runs and too many extra base hits, as evidenced by his high 4.50 ERA, which was the result of too many earned runs (30) being plated despite not a lot of hits allowed (44).
36 year old Tim Byrdak made his NASBL debut last season with Outlaw and had a good season despite being used sparingly. In 26 appearances with the Wales , spanning 25.1 innings, Byrdak, who has developed a forkball in recent years, was 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.24 WHP. Like Tyler Clippard, Byrdak does not give up a lot of hits but does have a tendency to wildness and the longball.
Finally, the Knights welcome Octavio Dotel back to the organization as part of the middle relief corps. Dotel, 35, was drafted by the Knights in 2009 after having missed the previous three seasons due to various injuries. Dotel rewarded the club with a solid year, striking out 59 in 53 innings while walking just 26 and posting a WHP of 1.37.
In conclusion, this page sees the Knights as fielding an improved team on both sides of the ball. However, the lack of a big-time, 40-homer slugger in the A-Rod or Pujols class will continue to keep this team out of serious playoff contention. If everyone performs up to expectations, we believe the Knights can finish over .500, possibly with 83 wins, in 2010.
Monday, March 8, 2010
2010 1st Round through the eyes of Baseball Prospectus
Burlington, VT
The opening round of the 2010 NASBL Rookie & Free Agent Draft was both compelling (8 of the 16 picks were made by teams other than their original owner) and deep with talent. Rather than go through the silly exercise of HAVING AN IMMEDIATELY IMPORTANT OPINION (something the WLL can't resist), we'll simply turn to the experts and see what they have to say about the 16 shiny new toys. The experts are the folks over at Baseball Prospectus and all material is from their Essential Guide to the 2010 Baseball Season.
1. GRK Matt Wieters - Wieters didn't walk as nearly as much expected, symptomatic of someone who's pressing, and the decreased selectivity could also explain the power drop. We still expect big things from him, even if he doesn't sign autographs for five thousand people using only two fishes and five loaves of bread. Comparables - Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sherman Obando, Charles Johnson, Steve Decker
2. VFS* Tommy Hanson - Hanson will be in the rotation in 2010, and with an improved changeup and better command within the strike zone, he could move into elite status over the next few years. Comparables - Jason Bere, Wade Davis, Kevin Gross, Jimmy Haynes
3. OJW* Elvis Andrus - Andrus wasn't drop-dead good, mind you, not with an OPS just over 700. Nor does it mean he won't be good in the future; he's just not there yet. The good news is he's still six to eight years away from his prime. Comparables - Edgar Renteria, Oman Infante, Alcides Escobar, Luis Rivas
4. TRY Pablo Sandoval - El Osezno is not the sort of player where pat assertions about regression to leaguewide marks for line-drive rates or BABIP mean much. His exceptional plate coverage makes him ore dangerous because he won't just try to hit your pitch; he can hit your pitch. He's in line to launch lava-hot liners after an aggressive off-season conditioning program. Comparables - David Wright, Carlos Baerga, Michael Barrett, Scott Rolen
5. NYK Josh Johnson - Johnson finally threw off the still-smoldering wreckage of Joe Giardi's Marlins stint. Reasons for [future] acquiring team to exercise caution: by virtue of his two injury-afflicted years, Johnson experienced a big jump in his workload, and fatigue may be an issue, especially as his ERA increased every month of the season, rising from 2.60 in April to 4.11 in September. Comparables - Ed Halicki, Pete Vuckovich, Gaylord Perry, David Goltz
6. ILL Chris Carpenter - His story isn't finished yet. (A)fter last season's exploits, another bit of greatness or another disappearance onto the DL seem to be the poles he operates from, with little chance of anything in between. Comparables - Clay Carroll, Jason Grimsly, Julian Tavarez, Tanyon Sturtze
7. ILL* Gordon Beckham - His skill sets work even better at 2b, and his bat will be even more valuable up the middle. Players who move this quickly (through the system) tend to be stars, and there's an excellent chance that when you visit The Cell three years from now, you'll be greeted by a sea of No. 15 jerseys. Comparables - Ron Hunt, Ken Keltner, Dale Berra, Bob Bailey
8. ILL* Brett Anderson - What's surprising is how much of a forward leap he took, and he now looks like a potential All-Star. His [stuff] was always advanced for his years, but it was with his fastball that he took the biggest step forward in 2009. Anderson has been upgraded from good to great. Comparables - Renyel Pinto, Scott Olsen, Jaime Garcia, Glendon Rusch
9. GCG David Price - The most troubling aspect of his season was his struggles with his vaunted slider, which had been considered a plus-pitch. It generated swings and misses just 4.8% of the time, 4th lowest rate in the league. He'll have to restore his feel for that pitch in order to fulfill the lofty expectations set for him. Comparables - Sean Marshall, Britt Burns, Steve Cooke, Chris Nabholz
10. HHA Andrew McCutchen - He has all the tools necessary for stardom, including great speed, rapidly emerging power, and the type of range and arm to become an outstanding defensive CFer. The Pirates have had their share of phenoms fizzle out, but McCutchen is the real deal. Comparables - Ellis Burks, Rontrez Johnson, Winston Ficklin, Kevin Belcher
11. LVI* Rick Porcello - He is another in a line of recent, high-draft picks whose minor-league numbers are completely useless for analysis. He fully deserved his spot in the rotation last year - other than a couple small hiccups he was solid and consistent. The worry shifts toward keeping his pitch counts and innings in check, as he's only 21. Comparables - Jon Garland, Buddy Carlyle, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Hartshorn
12. LVI* Phil Hughes - He was successful in the pen last year. In the short term, that role was exactly what he needed, but in the long term, limiting him to one-inning appearances would be wasteful. Comparables - Stan Williams, Fausto Carmona, Don Cardwell, Lindy McDaniel
13. VFS J.A. Happ - He benefited from a lofty 85% rate of stranding runners, well above the league average of 72%, and he may not strike out enough hitters to make his high walk rate stand up. Happ won't be excellent every time out, but he should be a rotation stalwart for years to come. Comparables - Dave Williams, Vaughn Eshelman, John Halama, Rich Hill
14. HHA* Kendry Morales - By all accounts, he had a surprising 2009 season. Credit Morales for adjusting to big-league pitching and making solid contact far more often than he had in the past. Even if PECOTA suggests a major regression, this is one case where you're better off letting go of those numbers. Comparables - Ryan Garko, Shea Hillenbrand, Bob Hamelin, Paul Sorrento
15. SPR* Nyjer Morgan - Although he'd been previously criticized for sloppy outfield play and bad routes, Morgan's dramatic defensive improvement and high OBP made him a 5-win player last year. As wonderful as all that is, and as much fun as it is to root for someone with his back story, the enhancement is not likely to last. His low walk rate and nonexistent power make his offensive value too reliant no a slap-and-dash approach to maintain a high batting average. He's already 29, but his speed and defense should age well and he has shown he can be a starting CFer. But is Nationals fans expect an All-Star, he's not the droid they're looking for. Comparables - Milt Thompson, Kerry Robinson, Alex Cole, Endy Chavez
16. OWJ Nelson Cruz - His power is not a ballpark fiction, but he's a fly-ball hitter in a fly-ball-hitting environment finally logging a full season. Between his Ks and fly balls, racking up RBIs will depend on his hitting more homers. Nelson is a fine regular in his prime, he just shouldn't be asked to be the best hitter in a contending lineup.
* - Indicates traded pick
The opening round of the 2010 NASBL Rookie & Free Agent Draft was both compelling (8 of the 16 picks were made by teams other than their original owner) and deep with talent. Rather than go through the silly exercise of HAVING AN IMMEDIATELY IMPORTANT OPINION (something the WLL can't resist), we'll simply turn to the experts and see what they have to say about the 16 shiny new toys. The experts are the folks over at Baseball Prospectus and all material is from their Essential Guide to the 2010 Baseball Season.
1. GRK Matt Wieters - Wieters didn't walk as nearly as much expected, symptomatic of someone who's pressing, and the decreased selectivity could also explain the power drop. We still expect big things from him, even if he doesn't sign autographs for five thousand people using only two fishes and five loaves of bread. Comparables - Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sherman Obando, Charles Johnson, Steve Decker
2. VFS* Tommy Hanson - Hanson will be in the rotation in 2010, and with an improved changeup and better command within the strike zone, he could move into elite status over the next few years. Comparables - Jason Bere, Wade Davis, Kevin Gross, Jimmy Haynes
3. OJW* Elvis Andrus - Andrus wasn't drop-dead good, mind you, not with an OPS just over 700. Nor does it mean he won't be good in the future; he's just not there yet. The good news is he's still six to eight years away from his prime. Comparables - Edgar Renteria, Oman Infante, Alcides Escobar, Luis Rivas
4. TRY Pablo Sandoval - El Osezno is not the sort of player where pat assertions about regression to leaguewide marks for line-drive rates or BABIP mean much. His exceptional plate coverage makes him ore dangerous because he won't just try to hit your pitch; he can hit your pitch. He's in line to launch lava-hot liners after an aggressive off-season conditioning program. Comparables - David Wright, Carlos Baerga, Michael Barrett, Scott Rolen
5. NYK Josh Johnson - Johnson finally threw off the still-smoldering wreckage of Joe Giardi's Marlins stint. Reasons for [future] acquiring team to exercise caution: by virtue of his two injury-afflicted years, Johnson experienced a big jump in his workload, and fatigue may be an issue, especially as his ERA increased every month of the season, rising from 2.60 in April to 4.11 in September. Comparables - Ed Halicki, Pete Vuckovich, Gaylord Perry, David Goltz
6. ILL Chris Carpenter - His story isn't finished yet. (A)fter last season's exploits, another bit of greatness or another disappearance onto the DL seem to be the poles he operates from, with little chance of anything in between. Comparables - Clay Carroll, Jason Grimsly, Julian Tavarez, Tanyon Sturtze
7. ILL* Gordon Beckham - His skill sets work even better at 2b, and his bat will be even more valuable up the middle. Players who move this quickly (through the system) tend to be stars, and there's an excellent chance that when you visit The Cell three years from now, you'll be greeted by a sea of No. 15 jerseys. Comparables - Ron Hunt, Ken Keltner, Dale Berra, Bob Bailey
8. ILL* Brett Anderson - What's surprising is how much of a forward leap he took, and he now looks like a potential All-Star. His [stuff] was always advanced for his years, but it was with his fastball that he took the biggest step forward in 2009. Anderson has been upgraded from good to great. Comparables - Renyel Pinto, Scott Olsen, Jaime Garcia, Glendon Rusch
9. GCG David Price - The most troubling aspect of his season was his struggles with his vaunted slider, which had been considered a plus-pitch. It generated swings and misses just 4.8% of the time, 4th lowest rate in the league. He'll have to restore his feel for that pitch in order to fulfill the lofty expectations set for him. Comparables - Sean Marshall, Britt Burns, Steve Cooke, Chris Nabholz
10. HHA Andrew McCutchen - He has all the tools necessary for stardom, including great speed, rapidly emerging power, and the type of range and arm to become an outstanding defensive CFer. The Pirates have had their share of phenoms fizzle out, but McCutchen is the real deal. Comparables - Ellis Burks, Rontrez Johnson, Winston Ficklin, Kevin Belcher
11. LVI* Rick Porcello - He is another in a line of recent, high-draft picks whose minor-league numbers are completely useless for analysis. He fully deserved his spot in the rotation last year - other than a couple small hiccups he was solid and consistent. The worry shifts toward keeping his pitch counts and innings in check, as he's only 21. Comparables - Jon Garland, Buddy Carlyle, Bronson Arroyo, Kyle Hartshorn
12. LVI* Phil Hughes - He was successful in the pen last year. In the short term, that role was exactly what he needed, but in the long term, limiting him to one-inning appearances would be wasteful. Comparables - Stan Williams, Fausto Carmona, Don Cardwell, Lindy McDaniel
13. VFS J.A. Happ - He benefited from a lofty 85% rate of stranding runners, well above the league average of 72%, and he may not strike out enough hitters to make his high walk rate stand up. Happ won't be excellent every time out, but he should be a rotation stalwart for years to come. Comparables - Dave Williams, Vaughn Eshelman, John Halama, Rich Hill
14. HHA* Kendry Morales - By all accounts, he had a surprising 2009 season. Credit Morales for adjusting to big-league pitching and making solid contact far more often than he had in the past. Even if PECOTA suggests a major regression, this is one case where you're better off letting go of those numbers. Comparables - Ryan Garko, Shea Hillenbrand, Bob Hamelin, Paul Sorrento
15. SPR* Nyjer Morgan - Although he'd been previously criticized for sloppy outfield play and bad routes, Morgan's dramatic defensive improvement and high OBP made him a 5-win player last year. As wonderful as all that is, and as much fun as it is to root for someone with his back story, the enhancement is not likely to last. His low walk rate and nonexistent power make his offensive value too reliant no a slap-and-dash approach to maintain a high batting average. He's already 29, but his speed and defense should age well and he has shown he can be a starting CFer. But is Nationals fans expect an All-Star, he's not the droid they're looking for. Comparables - Milt Thompson, Kerry Robinson, Alex Cole, Endy Chavez
16. OWJ Nelson Cruz - His power is not a ballpark fiction, but he's a fly-ball hitter in a fly-ball-hitting environment finally logging a full season. Between his Ks and fly balls, racking up RBIs will depend on his hitting more homers. Nelson is a fine regular in his prime, he just shouldn't be asked to be the best hitter in a contending lineup.
* - Indicates traded pick
Big Giant Massive Honkin' Blockbuster Earth-Shattering Trades
The little trade of Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano for Carl Crawford, Chase Utley, LVI #1, ILL#2, and GRK #4 made me think of former NASBL blockbuster trades. It's not too often that any owner has the nads to either trade one of the undisputed best players in the game or to give up the whole farm for one player.
In my 19 years in NASBL I can recall only two trades of this magnitude.
In the early 1990s, Ken Griffey was the undisputed future of baseball. Juan Gonzalez and David Cone were a little older but were two of the best players in baseball and best cards in the Strat-O-Matic set. Young Willoughby Fighting Monkees manager Mike "Digger" Hutter had Griffey but was looking for more immediate rewards. NASBL founder and Dallas Fort Worth Spurs manager Red Robbins had Cone and Gonzalez. A marriage was made and Juan Gone and Cone were traded for Griffey. All three players dominated baseball for several years. Griffey lost more time to injuries, but Cone and Gonzalez were out of baseball well before Griffey so I would call this trade a draw.
In January of 1997 "trader" Mike Johnson owned the first pick of the NASBL draft. Oklahoma City manager Dave Covert had the 2nd or 3rd pick and coveted a young shortstop by the name of Alex Rodriguez, who Dave knew would go first. I don't remember the exact details but Covert gave up the farm to move up to the first pick in that draft. In fact I remember trader Mike telling me that he had told another owner to "get your own farm team" when that owner complained about how much Mike had gotten for that pick. History has been kind to Dave and ARod has been the kind of franchise player worth trading the farm for.
In my 19 years in NASBL I can recall only two trades of this magnitude.
In the early 1990s, Ken Griffey was the undisputed future of baseball. Juan Gonzalez and David Cone were a little older but were two of the best players in baseball and best cards in the Strat-O-Matic set. Young Willoughby Fighting Monkees manager Mike "Digger" Hutter had Griffey but was looking for more immediate rewards. NASBL founder and Dallas Fort Worth Spurs manager Red Robbins had Cone and Gonzalez. A marriage was made and Juan Gone and Cone were traded for Griffey. All three players dominated baseball for several years. Griffey lost more time to injuries, but Cone and Gonzalez were out of baseball well before Griffey so I would call this trade a draw.
In January of 1997 "trader" Mike Johnson owned the first pick of the NASBL draft. Oklahoma City manager Dave Covert had the 2nd or 3rd pick and coveted a young shortstop by the name of Alex Rodriguez, who Dave knew would go first. I don't remember the exact details but Covert gave up the farm to move up to the first pick in that draft. In fact I remember trader Mike telling me that he had told another owner to "get your own farm team" when that owner complained about how much Mike had gotten for that pick. History has been kind to Dave and ARod has been the kind of franchise player worth trading the farm for.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Next Year is Here! errr umm The Future is Bright!
Illinois Times - Chows GM Brad Sherlag controlled 1/3 of the top 9 picks in this year's draft. The Chows were expected to go one of two ways. Sherlag could make an imprint on the Chows for years to come in a draft loaded with young talent. Or, Sherlag could draft some players who excelled during the 2009 MLB season and figured to lead a team into the promised land in the 2010 NASBL campaign. Instead, Sherlag couldn't decide if he was going for this season or the future.
With the #6 pick, Sherlag chose Chris Carpenter who will instantly be one of the elite starters in all of NASBl. "Having a 1-2 of Carpenter and Halladay gives our staff credibility it has never had before. We have two legitimate aces now and believe we are contenders." No one can dispute Carpenter's talent, but his health and age (34) make this a pick for this season. So after leaving the podium with Pick 6 in the bag, and having previously traded their 2nd round pick for Todd Helton, the direction was clear - the Chows were all in for the 2010 season.
Not so fast, with pick #7, the Chows selected 3B Gordon Beckham. The only problem is, Illinois already has the hot corner manned by Chone Figgins. Chone is poised for a break out year in 2010, so why did the Chows select a 3B with the 7th pick? "We feel Beckham was the best available player on the board. We also believe he can play 2B in the future and will form our future DP combo with Ramirez. However, we will ease him into the NASBL by letting him get his feet wet playing 3B against lefties." Beckham is only 23, so he can become what Sherlag thinks he will, but this pick just doesn't mesh with taking Carpenter.
OK, so going into pick #8, the Chows are now going for the future, so will it be young McCutchen, Rasmus, Porcello o Price? With the #8 pick, the Chows take Brett Anderson. Anderson is only 22, but is not as highly regarded as Porcello or Price. "We had Anderson as the 4th best pitcher on the draft board behind Johnson, Carpenter and Hanson. We had him as the #3 pitcher for upside and had him ahead of Price and Porcello with our 2010 projection." When the Illinois Times asked Sherlag if he was straddling the fence with this pick he said "Absolutely not. We believe that Anderson is better than Price or Porcello this season and will be throughout his career."
Will Illinois have the horses to compete for a playoff spot this year? Sherlag thinks so, "We have a real solid line-up against both sides. We figure to get on base more than ever this season. Our defense is the best it has ever been with a 1 in CF, a 1 at 3B, a 2 at SS, LF, RF, 1B and C. Our staff has two aces, Anderson and Wells are a legit 3 and 4 and we have depth in starting pitching with Volquez, Maine and Shields. Nathan again anchors our bullpen."
"If we are in it at the end of Block 1, we will be aggressive on the trading front. Shields is still on the right side of 30 and I believe we could easily turn him into a better starter for this season at the Block I trading deadline. Some teams will realize it is not their year and we have some attractive players to supplement with picks to get the very best players that find themselves on the block." Will the Chows be one of those teams? Only time will tell.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
New Haymakers Hope to Right the Ship of failed picks
Draft War Room, Classified Location: The annual spring draft has not fared well for the Haymakers front office since relocating the team back in 2007, and the team has worked hard this spring to correct the error of their ways with this years' draft. The failed history has left the team with the number 2 pick overall in last years draft and the 4th pick this year. Here's a look back at the history of the first two rounds for the Troy faithful:
2007 Round 1: Scott Olsen...the 22 year old lefty showed much promise back then but has never shined at Haymakers Grounds. The game start leader never had an ERA under 5.00 and his win loss percentage was even worse. Anger issues and falling velocity finally landed him on the DL, and now back in the FA pool.
2007 Round 2: Clay Hensley...posted a 11-8 record in his only season on the Haymakers. Injuries and poor pitching led him to be released the following year.
2008 Round 1: Hunter Pence...drafted with the 7th pick overall, he has shown flashes of promise, but has been streaky throughout his career for Troy but has slowly been getting better. Pence will likely finally see a full time role in RF in 2010.
2008 Round 1: John Maine...the Haymakers traded up to get Maine 14th overall in the draft. Posted a solid 4.15 ERA in his one season on the team, and was traded in the offseason for Adrian Beltre. Beltre, still on the team, has likely lost his job to the 2010 first round pick.
2009 Round 1: Geovanny Soto...the second pick overall in the draft came highly touted but posted sub-par stats in spacious Haymaker Grounds in his first season and injuries will keep his stats down in 2010. Has come to camp this season trimmed down and healthy while Troy's camp is expecting a big comeback.
2009 Round 2: Rick Ankiel...the former pitching prospect and star had a high profile fall from grace and an even amazing return as a power bat. Ankiel posted solid stats in his first season as a Haymaker, but shoulder injury keep him off the field and now is back in the FA pool hoping for another return, with a different team.
2010 Round 1: Pablo "Kung-Fu Panda" Sandoval...this young bat has been compared to Vlad Guerrero, but plays 3B and can catch in a pinch. An exciting player with great team presence, the Haymakers faithful are hoping he can man the hot corner for years to come.
2010 Round 2: Max Scherzer... the 6 foot 3 power arm has a career 9.5 strikeout/9IP in his short stint for the minor league Diamondbacks and has great poise on the mound. Has the tendency to give up the gopher ball, but the spacious Haymaker Gounds should help with that. Should fill in nicely as the 2 starter behind ace Jered Weaver.
The excitement of these two young start should surely fill the grandstands in Troy and hopefully bring a championship to the team soon enough.
Twitter: Rotation "Set", Knights Now Looking for Offense?
(New York Daily Mirror Online - February 25, 2010)
The Mirror Online is following the Twitter account of an unnamed front office executive of the Knights who is present in the Knights draft "war room" at Knights Field in Flushing, NY.)
NEW YORK - As we have always known, Knights GM Mitch Pak can be unpredictable when it comes to the draft, especially in the early rounds. This year has been no different, as the Knights selected young fireballer Josh Johnson with their first pick of the draft (#5 overall), adding to what is already regarded as one of the deeper rotations in the LF.
Where to from here? The Knights are still without a catcher and as Casey Stengel used to say, "ya gotta have a catcher; otherwise you'll have a lot of passed balls".
Our anonymous source in the Knights draft "war room" provided the following on his (her?) Twitter account this morning at 4 a.m.
"Mitch was nervous that Matt Cain was going to underperform again this year, so he was thrilled that a young talent like Josh Johnson was available at #5. Mitch feels that Johnson can be the righty complement to Jon Lester and that Cain will be the #3. My guess is that he's now going to be looking to add a bat. I haven't heard him talk about catchers yet, but I did hear him mention Jason Kendall while he was on his cellphone last night about midnight. He was laughing at the time and I have no idea who he was talking to, so who knows?"
The Mirror Online is following the Twitter account of an unnamed front office executive of the Knights who is present in the Knights draft "war room" at Knights Field in Flushing, NY.)
NEW YORK - As we have always known, Knights GM Mitch Pak can be unpredictable when it comes to the draft, especially in the early rounds. This year has been no different, as the Knights selected young fireballer Josh Johnson with their first pick of the draft (#5 overall), adding to what is already regarded as one of the deeper rotations in the LF.
Where to from here? The Knights are still without a catcher and as Casey Stengel used to say, "ya gotta have a catcher; otherwise you'll have a lot of passed balls".
Our anonymous source in the Knights draft "war room" provided the following on his (her?) Twitter account this morning at 4 a.m.
"Mitch was nervous that Matt Cain was going to underperform again this year, so he was thrilled that a young talent like Josh Johnson was available at #5. Mitch feels that Johnson can be the righty complement to Jon Lester and that Cain will be the #3. My guess is that he's now going to be looking to add a bat. I haven't heard him talk about catchers yet, but I did hear him mention Jason Kendall while he was on his cellphone last night about midnight. He was laughing at the time and I have no idea who he was talking to, so who knows?"
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