Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Omar: I Did Not Take PEDs

"I have never used PEDs. Period!" exclaimed an indignant Omar Vizquel at a hastily-arranged news conference in Outlaw Pond. Rumors that a leaked drug test result implicate a prominent Outlaw slugger who was facing a long suspension had reporters all over Outlaw busy speculating. And the speculation naturally focused on Omar the Great.

"These are all vicious lies and innunendo meant to drag a successful player down into the gutter," continued Vizquel. "I have done amazing things in my career and unfortunately there are some in the news business who want to want to bring a great man down. I assure you that time will prove that I am 100% clean!"

Outlaw officials and the NASBL home office had no comment when asked about the rumored positive drug test.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Knights Revise Roster, Shift Lineups for Block 2

(New York Daily Mirror - May 19, 2009)

NEW YORK - Although the Knights are off to a much better start this season than they were in 2008, GM Mitch Pak is still upset at the 17-29 record and has vowed to make sweeping changes involving both newcomers and long-time Knights in an attempt to make Block 2 respectable.

In an internal Knights memo leaked to the Mirror, the following changes appear.

  • Adam Wainwright, winless in seven starts and carrying a brutal 8.47 ERA, has been sent down to the Knights' AAA club, the Cedarhurst Cedars. The Knights will have a five-man rotation in Block 2.
  • 2B Clint Barmes, who batted .255 with 7 homers, 22 RBI and a .720 OPS in Block 1, has been deactivated due to overusage concerns. Jeff Kent will be the full time 2B in Block 2.
  • Garrett Atkins (.278 in Block 1) has been banished from third base, where he has played since being drafted as a rookie by the Knights a few seasons back. He is slated to play first against left-handed pitching in Block 2. Jorge Cantu (.272) and Ty Wigginton will take over third base duties against lefties and righties respectively.

The Knights have also had internal discussions about unclogging the logjams at both first and third by dealing Atkins (on whom Mitch Pak has soured) or Adam LaRoche.

Topes Trade for Hamilton, Hope for Posada Part Deux

Springfield (AP) - For the second straight season, GM Doug Sherlag has made a blockbuster trade before Block 2 of the NASBL season. The Isotopes sent its closer for the last season plus, Jonathon Papelbon, along with young centerfielder Carlos "Go Go" Gomez and Springfield's first round pick in next year's NASBL draft to the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. Coming back, the Topes will get centerfielder/run producer Josh Hamilton and Matt Capps. This comes on the heels of last year's post Block 1 trade where the Topes added Jorge Posada to its squad in a deal with the Vermont Fighting Sioux. That trade worked out extremely well for the Isotopes as Posada hit .368 with an other-worldly 1.137 OPS in 400 plate appearances for the Topes, and Jorge proved a key cog in bringing the Topes its first NASBL Championship.

Papelbon has not had the success anticipated by the Topes faithful since Joe Nathan was traded last year, blowing fourteen saves in fifty four opportunities (including five blown saves in thirteen opportunities so far in 2009). "Joe's shoes are pretty big to fill and Jonathon tried really hard out there to fill them. Unfortunately, we've been leaving a lot of wins out there in the 9th inning since Joe left," said GM Doug Sherlag. Topes fans are used to success from its closers. Since 2002, three different Topes closers have won the Tastes Great fireman of the year award (Nathan, Octavio Dotel, and Jose Mesa). Papelbon was expected to join this group, but for some reason was unable to, including compiling an ugly 5.01 ERA in 2008. Matt Capps has been perfect in 2009 and was dominant as a part time closer in 2008. "You can't go wrong getting a guy with a 0.00 ERA and Matt should plug right in as our closer for the remainder of the season," said Sherlag in regards to Capps.

Although shoring up the closer role for 2009 is a nice bonus, the key to the deal for the Isotopes is bringing in Josh Hamilton. Josh Hamilton has not produced as anticipated offensively since he was Lehigh Valley's 2nd round pick in the 2008 NASBL draft, but he fits the Topes bill as a power hitting left handed hitter and it is not a reach to believe Hamilton will get a benefit by moving to a more friendly ballpark for his style. One thing that Hamilton has done since coming to the Pigs is catch and throw the ball on par with the best of them in centerfield. He will plug in as the everyday centerfielder and a middle of the order run producer for the Istopes.

According to Sherlag, "I hate giving up 1st round picks, but our goal is to defend our NASBL championship. In our division, if you don't make any moves to get better during the season, you could find yourself on the outside looking in come playoff time. Last year, the Posada trade carried us to our first NASBL chamnpionship, so I saw first hand how adding a big time player to the middle of your order can benefit a team. Plus, Hamilton's still a young guy (27) and when I looked at his age, I realized that we both share a birthday. It just seemed like good karma."

"I don't care about karma," said Topes fan Justin Gates, "I care about championships. If this trade doesn't bring us a championship then Sherlag has a lot of explaining to do mortgaging the squad's future like this."

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

2009 Rookie/FA Draft - So Far, So Good??

Burlington, VT

This is not a Mel Kiperesque post, no grades will be given of judgments made. It is a simple review of the 1st round of the 2009 NASBL Rookie and Free Agent Draft pairing the players drafted with their '09 NASBL and MLB numbers. OK, only one judgment will be made. Kevin Burns put on his Halloween costume and got himself a couple of franchise cornerstones; trading for the #3 spot and grabbing Evan Longoria and trading up 2 spots to #10 and getting Justin Upton. Don't know about the rest of you, but I find that a pretty good draft day haul considering all it cost him (more or less) was Carlos Quentin, HC Kuo and Jose Valverde. Kudos to you Mr. Burns, kudos to you.

We now enter the No Spin Zone portion of the article.

Pick - Player - Team - '09 NASBL #s. '09 MLB #s
  1. Jon Lester, NYK - 2-5, 4.42. 2-3, 6.31, 1.57 WHIP, league high 8 HRs surrendered, impressive 10.7 K/9
  2. Geonavy Soto, TRY - .240, 2-13 (HR-RBI). .175 avg, .505 OPS, zero HR, 4 RBI, league high 9 GDP
  3. Evan Longoria, LVI - .284, 7-25. .362, 1.165, 11 HR and the following are league leading numbers; 95 total bases, .748 SLG, 16 2b, 45 RBI
  4. Matt Garza, GCG - 3-2, 3.44. 3-2, 3.56, 1.04
  5. Jay Bruce, NJT - .248, 5-19. .250, .860, 10-21
  6. Cliff Lee, SPL - 4-3, 3.39. 2-5, 3.00
  7. Joba Chamberlain, OJW - 2-1, 2.45. 2-1, 3.89, 1.56
  8. Edinson Volquez, ILL - 3-4, 5.69. 4-2, 4.40, 1.30, league best 5.9 H/9
  9. Joey Votto, NJT - .307, 6-40. .374, 1.056, 4-26
  10. Justin Upton, LVI - .351, 3-10. .295, .931, 7-18
  11. Denard Span, DFW - .259, 0-21, 11/11 SB. .299, .742, 1-16, 8/10 SB
  12. HC Kuo, LCC - 2-1, 3.00. 1-0, 6.75
  13. Ricky Nolasco, PCM - 4-4, 5.52. 2-3, 6.63, 1.61
  14. Chris Davis, HHA - .313, 3-9. .231, .806, 9-17, league high 50 Ks
  15. Clayton Kershaw, LCC - 0-2, 6.43. 1-3, 5.21, 1.34
  16. Shin-Soo Choo, SPR - .293, 1-15. .265, .830, 3-18
Three teams had two picks in the 1st round. LVI's success was chronicled above, NJT got themselves a couple of big LH bats for the future and LCC went against the grain and took two LHP. Think those rookies now mooring their Boston Whalers in Lake Champlain are the lone portsiders on the lake, not me - plenty of LHP there for Moneyball Beard.

That left GRK, MSU and VFS with no 1st round picks.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Block I - What Went Wrong?



Trivia Question - What is this: POW! BOOM SMASH!!! BAM BASH!!

Wrong Answer#1: Graphics from 1960's Batman shows

Wrong Answer #2: Outlaw hitters on the Road.

Right Answer #1: Opposing batters on Outlaw's Block I road trip.

Right Answer #2: Sounds that reporters heard outside Outlaw's meeting between owners and management after Outlaw's disastrous 9-17 Block I road trip. The meeting was so contentious and loud that concerned reporters called 911 after hearing screaming, caterwauling, and smashing hotel room furniture that would do a Grand Funk Railroad drunken road party proud.

The noise quited, police left, and a disheveled, and possibly drunken-in-sorrows owner Hildebrant emerged to a throng of incessantly-questioning reporters. "Why are we mired below .500 after breaking the bank on big-buck salaries for all of our reputed "stars". I'll tell you why! These lazy, (expletive-deleted), ^&*%$$, pampered jerk-offs are resting on their laurels and partying hard on the road while the team and fans suffer. I certainly didn't pay this big money to these clowns for a .346 road winning percentage."

Outlaw's batters managed a measly .245 batting average on the road, compared to a .278 average at home. The sluggers Road Hall of Shame includes Jason Bay (.181), Alfonso Soriano (.230), Ryan Theriot (.266), Ryan Ludwick (.194), Manny "all-natural" Ramirez (.237), and Dustin Pedroia (.286).

But the offense's road melt-down pales in comparison to the way our big-name starters were blasted on the road. The pitching staff that managed a respectable 3.36 ERA at home was pounded for a 5.08 ERA on the road. Outlaw's Starter Road Hall of Shame features Tim Hudson (5.45), Rich Harden (5.56), Ryan Dempster (6.04), and Scott Kazmir (6.00).

"What are we shoveling money at these overpaid babies for?" screamed owner Hildebrant to the astounded hacks. "Why are we putting them up in Sheraton suites on the road when we are getting Motel-8 performances in return? From now on, all road accomodations will be in Holiday Inn Express hotels until our road record is over .500. Maybe we'll get a little smarter!"

And what about teams asking the sub-.500 Wales about availaibilty of key players? Well, lets just paraphrase some great Americans who knew what to do when the going got tough:

Hero: "Hey! What's this lying around ? We just gonna take this?"
Slacker: "War's over man. Jersey just dropped the big one."
Hero: "What? Over? Did you say it's over? Nothing's over till we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! And it ain't over now! When the going gets tough . . . . . ."
Slackers: no response
Hero: "The tough get going. Who's with me? Lets go! . . ."
Slackers: no response
Hero: "What the (expletive deleted) happened to the Outlaw I used to know. Where's the spirit? Where's the guts? Harden, hey, whaddya say? Ramirez, you madman! Are you with me? Broxton, up big fella! Lets go go go! Everyone - follow me!"
Slackers: no response
Hero: "You (expletive deleted)! This could be the greatest night of our lives and you're gonna let it be the worst." The hero of Outlaw made his voice high and tremulous. "Oh, we're afraid to go with you hero. We could get in trouble."
Hero: "Well you can just kiss my a** from now on! Not me. I'm not taking this. Jersey? They're dead men. Honolulu? Dead! Neidermeyer....?"
moment of silence . . .
Hero #2: "Dead! He's right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We've got to take these bastards."
Hero #2: "Now we could fight them with conventional weapons, but that could take years and millions of lives. No, in this case, I think we have to go all out. This situation absolutely requires a really futile, stupid gesture on somebody's part."
Owner Hildebrant: "And we're just the guys to do it!"

Monday, May 11, 2009

Block 1 "Standings"

Burlington, VT

Block 1 is in the books and some teams have started to separate themselves from the pack. Sure, you might think it's easy to point at the standings and determine who the good teams are and who's in trouble. But what's the true measure of how good a team is? Record, expected record? Perhaps peripherals like HRs vs HRs allowed, Ks vs Ks thrown tell a better picture?

A few NASBL teams establish themselves as outliers in this statistical manner. Who are they? Thought you'd never ask:
  • LCC - Commish's club is playing .500 ball and looking at another year of beingSee full size image a 3rd wheel to the HHA-SPR love fest. But why is that? LCC is under performing by 3 wins on the expected wins (Wx) front and they have the league's best combined ranking when looking at HRs and Ks for and against. Those two facts are contradictory to each other. If you're lacking in expected wins, then maybe you're not doing a good job in other areas. But LCC is doing a good job in those areas. So what accounts for their pedestrian 23-23 Block 1? No idea.
  • DFW - Red Robbin's club is off to a roaring start sitting atop the Less Filling League with a 30-16 record. Many wrote off the Spurs, mainly due to the decline of their average ball cap size with the retirement of A, Y., but DFW has been a pleasant early surprise. In doing so it became clear they are the polar opposite of LCC. LCC under performs Wx by 3, DFW out performs Wx by 5. LCC is at the top of HR and K team stats, DFW near the bottom. In fact, the Spurs have yielded 22 more taters than they've hit and been struck out 58 more times then their opposition. Makes no sense. As an animated deceased attorney famously said, if something makes no sense, you must use the Chewbacca Defense. It was said that animated Cochran's defense was so advanced, no one understood it. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Dallas Fort Worth Spurs!
  • NJT - As good as the Heap have been this year, what's scary is their Wx shows they should have 4 more wins than they do, putting their expected record at 31-15. Jersey also excels in the HR and K departments, so their success (and expected success) is of no surprise. What it does reveal is that this team is for real and will be in the hunt all season long. Mosco's squad is the only one in the South division with a record over .500. They could have the division wrapped up by the end of Block 2 unless Outlaw catches fire. Speaking of Outlaw . . .
  • OJW - Made you look, no outlier here. Tracking right on pace with Wx, and right in the middle of the pack of secondary stats. So that leaves LVI (who appears to know when to throw in the towel, others, not so much) and last place Georgia left to chase down the Mosco Machine.
  • VFS & HHA - Two teams with nearly identical records and both out performed Wx by 4 and perform well in the HR and K category. So their success appears validated, but evidence shows their paces should cool off.
  • A handful of teams fit neatly into the "They are who we thought they are" category, so feel free to crown their ass. Miami has a good record, gives up precious few dingers and doesn't strike out much, so their place in the standings is no surprise. LVI recently issued this press release "It has come to our attention that this year's edition of the IronPigs is pathetic at best", and a statictical review of the #s supports GM Burns' claim.
These are but a few tidbits to chew on while putting together your Block 2 CMIs (due 5/24 at the stroke of midnight). But don't get too caught up in Wx, HRa, Ks and other voodoo techniques used to divert you from the truth. As noted net minder Marty Turco says, "Statistics are like bikinis, they only show so much".

Thursday, May 7, 2009

KNIGHTS BLOCK 1 ROUNDUP

(New York Daily Mirror - May 7, 2009)

NEW YORK - The Knights recently completed Block 1 of the 2009 NASBL campaign, and while there appears to be marked improvement over the season-long nightmare that was the '08 season, there is plenty of room for improvement.

The club finished Block 1 with a record of 17-29, good for a third-place tie in the LF Central with former perennial Central winner Pocono. The team posted a 9-14 record at Empire Field, a .391 winning percentage that surpasses the putrid .291 mark the club posted last season.

A. Pitching

There is no question that the Knights rotation last season ranks as among the worst squads that the NASBL has ever seen, compelling Knights GM Mitch Pak to focus on tearing down the rotation and bringing in new talent. Thus far, however, the vaunted rebuilt starting rotation has been disappointing.

The newcomers have done well. The best starter has been Joe Saunders, whose 1-3 record is misleading given his outstanding ERA (3.52) and WHP (1.06) and two complete games. Jon Lester, the overall #1 pick in this year's draft, lost five of his first seven decisions, but he too has been an apparent victim of a lack of run support. Lester's 4.42 ERA is very good for an NASBL lefthander and he leads the team in strikeouts with 42, against only 16 walks. Lester has also given the Knights innings, logging 53 IP and posting 3 complete games. Also performing well is newcomer Gavin Floyd, who went 4-4 in Block 1 with a 4.70 ERA and 4 complete games.

The problems start with the veterans - Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright and Mike Mussina. Cain, a 15-game winner in 2007 and the only starter to be retained after the '08 season, posted a 6.58 ERA in Block 1, posting a misleading 3-4 record. Cain has already surrendered 11 home runs and his control has been an issue (28 walks against just 37 strikeouts). Mussina has been a major disappointment thus far, to the chagrin of Knights management and fans who wanted the Moose to shine in his final NASBL season. Instead, the 40 year old Mussina has been whacked around to the tune of a 1-4 record and a Zito-like 8.36 ERA. Adam Wainwright has been even worse, going winless in seven Block 1 starts, posting a terrible 8.47 ERA and allowing 52 hits in just 39 innings pitched.

It would appear that the Knights will abandon their six-man rotation, and will most likely delegate Wainwright to the bullpen, or perhaps deactivate him for Block 2.

The Knights bullpen, the lone bright spot for the club in 2008, was excellent in Block 1. Octavio Dotel has been lights out, posting a 1.84 ERA in 14.2 innings along with 16 strikeouts and only five walks. Veteran Darren Oliver has already made 20 appearances and logged 43 innings, posting a great 2.28 ERA and a miniscule 1.04 WHP. Jeremy Affeldt (2.76 ERA) and closer Chad Qualls (2-0, 2.28) have also been effective. Only veteran Scott Linebrink has been disappointing, making just 4 appearances this season with a 6.75 ERA.

B. Hitting

The most pleasant surprise this far this season is the power provided by left fielder Xavier Nady. Nady has played in each of the Knights 46 games thus far and has been remarkable, bashing 14 homers (leading the entire NASBL) and 12 doubles and scoring 31 runs. He is tied for the team lead in hits (54) with Michael Young. The Captain also had a satisfying Block 1, batting .280 with 24 RBI and 13 doubles. Jorge Cantu, who appears to be the regular 3B now, hit .272 with 5 homers and 18 RBI and 49 base hits. Adam Laroche seems to have recovered his home run stroke (10 in 134 at bats).

Again performing poorly was CF Grady Sizemore, who batted just .204 in Block 1, with 6 homers and 15 RBI. If the Knights wish to even sniff .500 this year, Sizemore must do much better.